Author Archive: Felecia Lowe

BC Election: BC NDP leads by 10; Dix and Clark near even in personal popularity

Sure, the cryptocurrency investment choice is irresistible due to the prospective benefits one can attain in the near future! Even though, currently, the experts’ opinion differs on the conclusive success of the cryptocurrencies, the underlying technology called the Blockchain has gained the unanimous recognition and appreciation, which indirectly means the probable success of these digital coins in the near future. That is why the eagerness of the population in investing in the popular cryptocurrencies of the market, such as the Bitcoins, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple is hugely felt, which although is an appreciable approach, not a sensible approach if you do not venture the practice before understanding the following 3 significant factors!

  • The volatility

Just look into the history of the currently well-doing companies, whose stocks, initially were received with too many speculations and therefore, witnessed the extremely volatile situation! Upon gaining the confidence of the market and consistently proving their worth, the companies’ stocks did gain the stable position, slowly bidding adieu to the drastic volatility surrounding them! The same is the case with these nascent cryptocurrencies and therefore, only after the majority of the population starts understanding and appreciating the technology, the bubble situation surrounding them would vanish and until then, be prepared to face the situation cautiously!

 

  • The investment platform

First of all, we all know and believe in the success of online trading and investment platforms and therefore, there is no question about choosing it for your cryptocurrency investment practice! But, again, remember that all the online cryptocurrencies are not made the same, and especially when you are new to the investment practice it is only wiser to choose such a platform that would not complicate your position further! In this case, the best choice, both for the beginners and the seasoned traders is the automated cryptocurrency investment platform that can any day trade and invest successfully on the behalf of the traders! Do you want a reliable suggestion? Why not, look into the awesome Bitcoin Trader crypto robot?

 

  • Patience is the key

As stated earlier, the cryptocurrency market is slowly gaining the confidence of the population and therefore, the longer your investment period is, the better could be your outcome, for which your patience is the key! In fact, buy and hold concept can also strengthen your position against the cryptocurrency market’s volatility and hence, go for it to enjoy the most beneficial results in the future! But, whatever, never ever invest more than what you could afford to lose, which is true not only for the cryptocurrency investment procedure but for any other financial scheme that involves risks and fluctuations!

 

Do opinion polls have value?

Methodology under fire as election predictions have been wildly off in past
BY DAN BARNES, EDMONTON JOURNAL
APRIL 9, 2015
EDMONTON – With the provincial election campaign underway, public opinion polls are already surfacing — and with them, concerns about their methodology, accuracy and value to the public after they failed miserably in previous votes.

Three years ago, not one poll available to the public accurately predicted the Progressive Conservatives would surge past the front-running Wildrose. The next year, in B.C., 10 polling companies failed to forecast the Liberal win over the NDP.

So, what can be done? Are accurate polls a thing of the past, relegated to a time when everyone had a land line and answered their calls?

“There’s no excuse I think for what happened in Alberta and British Columbia. That’s not even close to accurate, so there was something we need to learn about,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto.

“But even in more recent provincial elections in Ontario and Quebec, where the polls generally did OK, the assumption is always that we have to be dead on accurate. Polls can’t always do that. If they do, it’s more luck than anything. They’re meant to be snapshots. There is error built into it.”

Still, there is a huge divide in methodology, and for the public, that’s not always readily apparently when political parties are waving various numbers around.

On Wednesday, for example, the Wildrose was pointing to a Think HQ poll that found their party, the PCs and the NDP in a dead heat; another poll from Mainstreet Technologies released Thursday is showing a similarly tight race. They follow on the heels of two polls last week, one by Mainstreet and the other by Insights West, that also both found the Wildrose and PCs were neck and neck.

The Insights West and Think HQ polls were from online panels; the Mainstreet Technologies ones were Interactive Voice Response polls — often dubbed “demon diallers” — which are automated phone calls.

Calgary-based pollster and pundit Janet Brown laments the proliferation of such online panel surveys and IVR polls, which she considers “cheap and fast methodologies” that skew toward people motivated by anger.

“The political parties are paying to have polling done right and the media is looking for free polling — and the media get what they pay for,” Brown says, referring to the trend for the online and IVR pollsters to provide their results to media organizations for free.

She stresses the need for properly constructed and administered live telephone polls, which are more costly to do.

Yet in the 2012 election all manner of polls conducted within a week of the April 23 vote were wrong. Theirs was a majority of error, not a margin.

Live telephone polls by Return on Insight and Leger Marketing conducted between April 13 and 16, 2012, hinted at a narrowing race but gave Wildrose the nod, as did IVR polls by Forum Research on April 22 and Abacus Data on April 18-19, and an online poll conducted April 17-18 by ThinkHQ.

So if every method of polling returned similar results in 2012, are they all faulty?

“There is no silver bullet,” said Return on Insight president Bruce Cameron. “There is no single methodology that works all the time.”

Adds Ian Large, Leger Marketing vice-president for Alberta: “What we learned in 2012 in Alberta is more about politics and less about polling. … Campaigns really matter and it’s possible to blow it at the last minute.”

Election day surprises are never good for companies whose business is to know the results beforehand, plus or minus three per cent, 19 times out of 20, of course. The Alberta and B.C. whiffs were part of a bad run as polling companies also fared poorly in the 2011 Ontario election.

It has nothing to do with the dubious investment systems that are mainly regarded as a scam and provides access to some of the most reliable and trustworthy investment tools and special features in this respective digital sphere. Be patient enough to read full article and decide for yourself whether you thought is positive for this special featured trading one. We assure you the complete satisfaction and promise you that this application software will never let you down.Feel free to post your comment once have experienced the magic of this cryptocurrency trader.

Our investigation verifies the results stated on the official users and we consider the crypto software to be a legit and authentic way to earn a good secondary or primary income on the Internet. Users can safely proceed to get started with it.

But the industry is most certainly in a state of flux.

One-third of Canadians no longer have land lines and caller-ID means many others won’t answer unfamiliar calls on their cellphones or land lines. That means it takes longer to do a poll, which drives live survey costs higher and making it less likely media organizations will shell out the $10,000-$20,0000 needed to partner with a major polling firm.

“I would imagine in the next couple of years there will not be telephone surveys being done and instead we’re going to be looking for new ways to collect data online,” said Coletto, who has used IVR in the past, but will not do so again. “One of the more recent methodologies would be to randomly pull people off websites.”

Cameron believes the future lies in a hybrid methodology combining live telephone delivery and online recruitment of respondents that approaches the randomness of a phone sample. He said those hybrids are under development in Canada.

Keep reading…

The Best Rewards Programs in Canada According to Millennials – Loyalty Redefined by Canadian Retailers The Best Rewards Programs in Canada According to Millennials – Loyalty Redefined by Canadian Retailers

This article is Part 2 of my series titled “Loyalty Redefined by Canadian Retailers”. If you haven’t already, discover The Top 10 Rewards Programs in Canada in Part 1 of this series! Please keep an eye out for more insights about your favourite Canadian rewards programs in the coming weeks!Not particularly related to Canada or the Canadians alone, but, if you are eager I can suggest you one another rewarding scheme that is open to everyone in this world! No, it is not about collecting points but about collecting or investing in the cryptocurrencies and to learn more, see here now!

Based on a recent Abacus Data poll of Canadians, we discovered what rewards programs were actively being used by Canadians to collect points. Now we will explore the top reward programs among Canadian Millennials, how these results compare to those of other generations, and what it means for a few longstanding loyalty leaders in Canada.

Here are the top 10 reward programs among Canadian Millennials (ages 18-32):

QUESTION: Which of the following reward programs have you used in the past 3 months to collect points?

AIR MILES (40%)
Shoppers Optimum (36%)
Scene (24%)
Plum Rewards (18%)
Hudson’s Bay Rewards (14%)
Canadian Tire Rewards (14%)
PETRO-POINTS (13%)
Aeroplan (13%)
Club Sobeys (11%)
PC Points/Plus (9%)
When compared to the national general population findings from the survey, many of the top programs remain in the top 10, but that is where the similarities end. Here is a table comparing the top 10 rewards programs among all Canadians beside a list of the top 10 rewards programs among Canadian Millennials so that you can see for yourself:

All Canadians Canadian Millennials
1. AIR MILES 1. AIR MILES
2. Shoppers Optimum 2. Shoppers Optimum
3. Canadian Tire Rewards 3. Scene
4. Aeroplan 4. Plum Rewards
5. Hudson’s Bay Rewards 5. Hudson’s Bay Rewards
6. PETRO-POINTS 6. Canadian Tire Rewards
7. Scene 7. PETRO-POINTS
8. Club Sobeys 8. Aeroplan
9. CAA 9. Club Sobeys
10. PC Points/Plus 10. PC Points/Plus

According to the Abacus Data survey, about one-quarter of Canadian Millennials (24%) have not collected points from any rewards program in the past 3 months, compared to only 1 in 10 among the older generations (9%). This finding provides both the insight that there should be ample opportunity for rewards programs to obtain new loyal members from the young generation, but that also there may be an issue with program relevance among Millennials.

The issue of program relevance becomes much more clear when we explore which generations are significantly more likely to be active collectors of each rewards program. Millennials are the least likely among Canadian generations to be active collectors within the following eight rewards programs:

AIR MILES (40% compared to 66% of the older generations)
Canadian Tire Rewards (14% compared to 26% of the older generations)
Aeroplan (13% compared to 23% of the older generations)
Hudson’s Bay Rewards (14% compared to 21% of the older generations)
PETRO-POINTS (13% compared to 20% of the older generations)
Sears Card (3% compared to 12% of the older generations)
metro&moi (4% compared to 10% of the older generations)
American Express Rewards (2% compared to 9% of the older generations)
That being said, Millennials are the most likely among Canadian generations to be active collectors within the following two rewards programs:

Scene (24% compared to 11% of the older generations)
Plum Rewards (18% compared to 9% of the older generations)
What does this tell us about some of Canada’s longstanding leaders in loyalty rewards? It’s time to make big changes.

You must rapidly adapt your rewards program for the Millennial generation, or risk losing this powerhouse generation to your newer and more adaptive competitors.

Here are a few first steps that I would recommend to every CEO, CFO, CMO and every other C-level involved in an established Canadian rewards program:

Review your program’s value proposition – Is it as clear and simple as possible?
Review your program’s flexibility – Are you offering the most convenient ways possible to earn and redeem?
Review your program’s marketing & communications teams – Are your core values understood and are they consistently communicated?
Over the next few weeks I will start to uncover some of the leaps and strides that these big rewards programs having been making in order to try to garner more attention from Canadian consumers. I will also provide some insight into why some of these changes will work and why some programs may not be doing enough.

About the Abacus Data Canadian Rewards Program Poll:

Abacus Data (www.abacusdata.ca) conducted an online omnibus survey of Candians ages 18 and older. The total sample was weighted by age, gender and region to be proportionately representative of the Canadian population of adults. Responses were collected between May 21 – 25, 2013 (n=2,465). For more information on this poll or other consumer research polls, please contact SeanCopeland, Director of Consumer Research at sean@abacusdata.ca or 647-269-5085.

POLITICS & PUBLIC AFFAIRS

According to a new national survey conducted from January 14 to 18, 2014 by public opinion firm Abacus Data, more Canadians describe the state of the Canadian economy as poor than they did in October 2013.  When asked how the three main federal political parties would do in managing Canada’s economy a majority of Canadians believed that all three would do at least an acceptable job with the Liberals having a slight advantage over the NDP and the Conservative s.

Well, while the politicians and the financial experts do what they could to boost the Canadian economy, why not choose your own way to boost your economy, irrespective of the outcome of these happenings? If you are really interested in discovering the way then, without any hesitation click over here now!

Perceptions about the Canadian Economy

Perceptions about Canada’s economy have softened since late October 2013.  Overall, 59% of Canadians describe the current state of Canada’s economy as very good (2%) or good (56%), down 9-points since October.  Forty-two percent, in contrast, describe Canada’s economy as either very poor (5%) or poor (37%), up 9-points since October.

Slide1

When asked about the future performance of the Canadian economy in the next six months, 23% of respondents believe things will get better while 19% think things will get worse while the majority (59%) of Canadians believe things will stay pretty much the same as they have been.

Of note, those who rate the current economy as good are also more likely to believe things will improve in the next six months while those with a more negative assessment of the current economy are more likely to think things will get worse.  Only 11% of those who rate the economy as poor/very poor believe things will improve in the next six months.

Slide2

Expected Performance on Managing the Economy

Respondents were also asked to rate how well they believed each party and leader would do at managing Canada’s economy.  While none of the three parties scored particularly well, none of them were perceived to do a poor or very poor job by a majority of respondents.

One in four respondents (24%) said that Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party would do an excellent or good job compared with 21% for Tom Mulcair and 27% for Justin Trudeau.

The difference between perception of the three leaders was most pronounced in the polarization of opinions towards the Prime Minister and the Conservative Party.  In contrast to the Liberals and NDP, respondents were more likely to perceive Harper and the Conservatives as doing a poor or very job managing the economy (40%).

Slide3

On the surface, the results suggest almost a stalemate between the three parties, with no one party having a significant advantage on the “managing the economy file.”  The data does show that the Prime Minister and the Conservative Party are perceived somewhat less favourably on the economy but most of those negative feelings come from Canadians who tell us they would not consider voting Conservative.

One of the things we are going to start doing in our political analysis (when the sample size allows us to) is to break the electorate up into seven distinct groups based on an individual voter’s proclivity to consider one or more of the three main political parties for their vote choice.

Early in our survey, we asked respondents whether they would consider voting for each of the three main political parties (Conservative, Liberal, and NDP) and based on the response to the three questions we created distinct voter groups.  These groups include those that would only consider voting Liberal, Conservative, or NDP, would consider voting for two of the main parties but not the third, those that would consider voting for all three main parties, and those that would not consider voting for any of the main parties.  We will also conduct a similar analysis within Quebec in the future.

In future posts on our website, we will profile each group in more detail, but for now, we think that Canadian politics and the behaviour of political leaders and the parties makes more sense if you view the political world in this way.

The next election will not be fought on a single battleground.

We think there are two broader groups to consider and small groups within each.

First, are those voters who would only consider voting for one political party.  These voters represent the base for each party and what matters here from a vote performance perspective is their motivation to vote and the size of the group.

The second broad group represents voters who would consider voting for more than one political parties.  They include (1) those who would consider all three parties (truly swing voters), (2) those who would only consider LPC or NDP (progressive non-partisans), (3) those who would only consider LPC or CPC (conservative non-partisans), and (4) those who would only consider the NDP or CPC (populists).

votergroups

When we assess perceptions about the ability of each party to manage the economy by these voter groups we find expected patterns.  Among those who would consider voting for all three parties, at least 72% believe that each party would do at least an acceptable  job managing the economy with the Liberals somewhat higher than the Tories and NDP.

Among the Conservative non-partisan group, the Conservatives and Liberals are perceived to be at least acceptable managers of the economy by at least 80% of respondents.  The NDP’s numbers are significantly weaker.  In fact, among Conservative non-partisan voters, only 5% believe the NDP would do an excellent or good job managing the economy.

Among those who would only consider voting NDP or Liberal (we call them progressive non-partisans), both the NDP and Liberals get good scores from almost all respondents.  The Conservatives, on the other hand, are less likely to be viewed as an acceptable economic manager to voters in this group.  In fact, only 9% of Progressive non-partisan voters consider the Prime Minister and the Conservative Party to be an excellent or good economic manager.

The final column in the table below reports results among those who said they would only consider voting for the Conservative Party.  Among the core base of the Conservative Party, 94% think that the Conservatives would do at least an acceptable job managing the economy while very few consider Mulcair or Trudeau to be acceptable economic managers.

Slide4

The point of this exercise is to first demonstrate that voters can view multiple parties and party leaders as acceptable or even good economic managers.  This has consequences for the role these opinions can play in affecting voter intention.  If voters, for example, in the Progressive non-partisan group view both Trudeau and Mulcair as equally able to manage the economy, then vote choice may come down to another factor such as leadership attributes, candidate selection, or another prominent issue.

Second, by looking at the electorate not as a single uniform group but as one made up of different groups of voters with different intentions and preferences, it becomes clear that just because more people view Stephen Harper and the Conservatives as poor economic managers than the other parties does not mean they cannot be re-elected in 2015.  However, the results demonstrate that they will need to work hard to convert almost all those who would consider voting Conservative to actually vote Conservative – especially when 12% of the electorate is open to voting either Conservative or Liberal.

Impact of Party Leader becoming Prime Minister after Next Election on the Economy

We also asked respondents to consider what effect electing each of the three leaders Prime Minister would have on the Canadian economy.  Similar to results to the earlier question, more respondents believed that the economy would likely weaken if Stephen Harper is re-elected as Prime Minister after the next election.  A third of respondents believed the economy would weaken while 17% believed it would improve.  Another 35% thought it would have no effect while 15% were not sure what the effect would be.

Tom Mulcair’s ratings were also more negative than positive (improve 18%, weaken 28%) but there was a much higher percent of respondents who said they were not sure what the effect of “Prime Minister Mulcair” would be on the economy.

Finally, respondents were more favourable to the impact of electing Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister on the economy, not surprising considering the Liberal Party’s current lead in vote intention.  One in four respondents believed things would improve under a Trudeau government compared to 25% who thought the economy would weaken.  Twenty-five percent were not sure what would happen.

Slide5

And once again, the devil is in the details.  When we break out perceptions across the four voter groups mentioned earlier, we find very substantial differences.  After computing a “net improvement score” by subtracting the percentage of respondents who said the economy would weaken from the percentage who said it would improve, we find expected patterns across the voting groups.

Among the pure swing voters (those that would consider all three parties), Trudeau’s impact on the economy if elected PM was most positive (+16) with Mulcair (-2) and Harper (-12) trailing.  Among conservative non-partisan voters, Harper’s score (+11) is slightly higher than Trudeau’s (+2) while Mulcair is well back with a net improvement score of -50.  Among those who would only consider voting for the NDP and Liberals, Trudeau (+39) has a sizeable lead over Mulcair (+18) with Harper well back at -47.  Finally, among those who would only consider voting Conservative, Harper get a high +55 while Mulcair and Trudeau’s scores were very negative (-61 and -64 respectively).

Slide6

The differences between these voter groups give us some insight into the opportunities and threats for each of the main parties as they set their strategy in the lead up to the next election.

What it Means for the Conservatives

For Stephen Harper and the Conservatives, the results demonstrate that the Conservative base clearly distinguishes between what a Harper Government and a Trudeau or Mulcair Government means for the Canadian economy.  The contrast between the leaders is stark and clear.  The objective for the Conservatives is to grow the gap between Harper and Trudeau on economic competence among non-partisan conservative voters and among those voters who say they would consider voting for all three parties.  For the Tories to win in 2015, they would need to turnout their base in high numbers (13% of the electorate), win at least 80% of the non-partisan conservative voters (12% of the electorate) and win at least 40% with voters open to voting for any of the three main parties (15% of the electorate).  At the same time, the Tories need to  avoid a situation where either the Liberals or the NDP are able to consolidate the progressive/anti-Conservative vote.

What it Means for the NDP

For Tom Mulcair and the NDP, the results in this study suggest that most Canadians do not consider the NDP as ineffective or incompetent economic managers.  This is a myth that does not hold in the evidence presented here.  However, Canadians don’t know what a federal NDP would perform having never experienced it.  So the unknown is still a liability.  The challenge for the NDP is positioning themselves as more competent on the economy than the Liberals while at the same time not scaring conservative non-partisan voters into the arms of the Trudeau Liberals.  It will be imperative for Mulcair to close the gap with Trudeau among progressive non-partisan voters which make up the largest voter group in the electorate at 22%.  If that is not possible, then the ballot question for the 2015 election will need to be something other than economic competence for voters in this group.  Right now, among these voters, Trudeau has a big advantage over Mulcair on economic competence which is helping to lift Liberal support far beyond the NDP.

What it Means for the Liberals

Finally, for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals, the results suggest that despite media elite-level questions about Trudeau’s competence or capabilities to be Prime Minister, the strength of the Liberal brand and the goodwill that many Canadians have for Mr. Trudeau seem to be leading the day.  However, this could change, especially in the heat of an election campaign when voters will be paying far more attention to the leaders and assessing their competence as economic managers.  But for now, the evidence suggests that after a year of attacks from the NDP and Conservatives, Trudeau’s personal brand has been resilient.  Right now, Trudeau has the advantage among Progressive non-partisan voters, among those who would consider voting for all three parties, and is not far behind Harper among those who would consider voting Liberal or Conservative.  All together this helps explain why the Liberals have a six-point lead nationally among committed voters.

Some Final Thoughts

The federal budget that Finance Minister Jim Flaherty will release on February 11 comes at a time when voter confidence in the state of the Canadian economy is softening.  More Canadians still rate the current economy as good than poor, but the trend since October 2013 is not a favourable one for the Conservative government.

For a government that has staked so much of its reputation and future success on how Canadians perceive it as sound economic managers, declining confidence and weak prospective economic evaluations is a discouraging sign.

However, the Conservatives are still regarded as good or acceptable economic managers by a majority of Canadians.  The base still sees Harper as much better option than either Trudeau or Mulcair.  The challenge with the 2014 budget and other economic policy to follow is, on the one hand, to continue to assure Canadians (or those Canadians that are within the Conservative universe) that all will be well and on the other, that the opposition leaders are lesser managers and stewards of the economic and a risky proposition.

Methodology

The survey was conducted online with 1,996 respondents in English and French using an internet survey programmed and collected by Abacus Data. A random sample of panelists was invited to participate in the survey from a representative panel of Canadians.  The survey was completed from January 14 to 18, 2014.

Since the online survey was not a random, probability based sample, a margin of error could not be calculated.   The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association prohibits statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates with regard to most online panels.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 1,996 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. 

The data was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

– See more at: http://web.archive.org/web/20151128073958/http://abacusinsider.com/politics-public-affairs/perceptions-canadian-economy-politics-fits/#sthash.Q68pMCSO.dpuf

Day 4 – Sun News/Abacus Data NS Election Tracking Poll – Liberals lead by 19

With only two days until the Nova Scotia election, the NS Liberal Party leads the NDP by 19 points among committed and leaning voters according to the Sun News/Abacus Data NS tracking poll.

Overall, 31% of eligible voters said they plan or have voted for the Liberal Party (up 1), followed by the NDP at 19% (up 1), the PCs at 16% (down 1), and the Green Party at 1%. Twenty-six percent of eligible voters say they are still undecided (down 3) while 7% of respondents have already voted but refused to identify who they voted for. All observed changes are inside the margin of error for the survey.

Among committed and leaning voters, the Liberals lead with 46% (down 2), followed by the NDP at 28% (down 2), and the PCs at 25% (up 3). The Green Party received 1% of the vote. Compared with yesterday’s poll, the observed change is marginal and inside the margin of error for the survey.

The percentage of respondents reporting that they have already voted has not changed all week and remains at 15% among all eligible voters.

Nova Scotia Election Outlook

We took Friday evening off from tracking and were back in the field yesterday.

Overall, there has been little movement in the key indicators. The Liberals still lead by almost 20 points over the NDP and Stephen McNeil is the most popular leader. However, the Liberal advantage on most the important issues remains small over the NDP and PC Party.

As we head into the final days of the campaign, the Liberals continue to look well positioned to win the election on Tuesday. Along with the party’s lead on key indicators, the Liberals look good because the number of undecided voters have also dropped over the course of the past six days and the Liberal lead has not. This indicates that as eligible voters make up their minds, they are just as likely to prefer the Liberals as those who had previously made up their minds.

Moreover, most eligible voters in Nova Scotia believe the Liberals will win the election.

Provincial Vote Intention

Overall, 31% of eligible voters said they plan or have voted for the Liberal Party (up 1), followed by the NDP at 19% (up 1), the PCs at 16% (down 1), and the Green Party at 1%. Twenty-six percent of eligible voters say they are still undecided (down 3) while 7% of respondents have already voted but refused to identify who they voted for. All observed changes are inside the margin of error for the survey.

Among committed and leaning voters, the Liberals lead with 46% (down 2), followed by the NDP at 28% (down 2), and the PCs at 25% (up 3). The Green Party received 1% of the vote. Compared with yesterday’s poll, the observed change is marginal and inside the margin of error for the survey

Slide1

Subgroup Analysis

Regionally, the NS Liberal continue to be strongest in the North and South Shore/Annapolis Valley while running neck and neck with the Tories on Cape Breton. In Halifax, the Liberals continue to hold a marginal lead over the NDP.

The Liberal Party continues to lead among all demographic groups but the race has tightened somewhat among those aged 60 and over.

Among committed voters who voted NDP in 2009, 48% say they will vote NDP while 39% plan to vote Liberal. Among all previous NDP voters, 13% are still undecided.

Does Dexter Deserve Re-Election?

A considerable majority of eligible voters in Nova Scotia continue to believe it is time for a change in the province while less the one in four eligible voters (224%) believe Darrell Dexter and the NDP deserve to be re-elected.

We have seen very little change in these numbers over the last five days of polling.

Top Issue and Best Party to Manage Issue

Jobs and the economy, health care, education and taxes remain the most important issues facing Nova Scotia according to eligible voters in Nova Scotia. These numbers have not much throughout the final week of the campaign.

But we have seen a noticeable shift in which party voters who care about each issue think can best handle it.

Earlier this week, the Liberal Party had a clear advantage among voters who said that jobs and the economy and health care were the most important issues facing the province.

When we include last night’s tracking into the previous two day’s data, we find the Liberal advantage on those two issues is gone. In fact, the NDP has taken a small marginal lead on best party to handle jobs or the economy (among those who reported health care as their top issue).

Furthermore, there remains a large number of voters who are undecided about which party can best handle the four most important issues.

Slide2

Most Trusted on the Economy

While the Liberal Party has lost its advantage among those who believe jobs and the economy are the top issues facing the province, the party still has a substantial lead among all eligible voters when they are asked which party they believe would be best able to handle the economic situation in Nova Scotia best. Thirty-one percent of eligible voters selected the Liberal Party, followed by 21% who selected the NDP and 17% who selected the PC Party. Twenty-two percent of respondents were unsure.

Best Premier

There was little change in perceptions about which party leader would make the best premier.

When respondents were asked which party leader they believed would make the best Premier, the results again mirrored the vote intention question. Thirty-two percent of respondents selected Liberal Leader Stephen McNeil while 21% selected incumbent Premier and NDP Leader Darrell Dexter. PC Leader Jamie Baillie was third at 17% among all eligible voters while 30% were unsure.

Slide3

Overall Party Leader Impressions

When it comes to overall impressions of the main party leaders in Nova Scotia, our tracking finds that Stephen McNeil’s personal numbers have not changed at all and he remains the most popular leader in the province.. A slight majority still have a positive impression of the Liberal Leader.

Our tracking has found a slight improvement in PC Leader Jamie Baillie’s numbers over the past few days. Overall, 41% of eligible voters have a favour impression of the PC Leader while 34% have a negative impression.

Darrell Dexter remains a polarizing figure with 37% of eligible voters having a positive impression of the NDP leader while 46% have a negative impression.

Slide4

Likely Election Winner

Finally, respondents were asked which political party they believed would ultimately win the Nova Scotia provincial election. A majority of voters continue to believe (58%) that the Liberal Party will win the election, up four points since Friday’s release, while only 12% felt the NDP will win.

Methodology

The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted October2 to October 5, 2013 among a provincial sample of 60 eligible voters in Nova Scotia. Interviews were conducted in English and 5,540 telephone numbers were dialed. Each evening up to and including Sunday October 6 (except for Friday evening), 200 to 250 interviews will be conducted with a random sample of eligible voters in Nova Scotia. The results of the poll will be released on Battleground with David Akin on the Sun News Network each evening at 7pm AT / 6pm ET.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data was statistically weighted according to the 2011 Census according to age, region, gender, and education. The margin of error for this survey is + 4.1%, 19 times out of 20. Note, the margin of error in subgroups with small sample sizes is much larger.

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network. For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

In debate format, Wynne can’t run on, or hide from McGuinty’s record

Tim Hudak’s campaign, until last night, was a hot mess. An accident-prone tour, an ad campaign that wandered from topic to topic and an economic plan that would fail grade 9 math.Not that we are encouraging you to elect Tim Hudak as your leader but, still, Tim Hudak’s poor economic plans need not be your concern if you choose more promising solutions like the Crypto CFD Trader, the automated cryptocurrency CFD trading platform to favor your economic situation now and forever!

The stakes were high for Mr. Hudak going into last night’s debate and the expectations were low. Many voters might have tuned in simply to have their instinct that he’s not fit to be Premier confirmed.

Instead, he may have stopped the downward momentum of his campaign, and given voters a chance to re-evaluate him. He was far better at taking down the Liberal record than NDP leader Andrea Horwath and he was, remarkably, allowed to brush off broadsides about his math problem.

Hudak came off as less scary, less radical and less of an amateur than might have been expected. A win, even if not a virtuoso performance.

For her part, Andrea Horwath seemed to confirm that her third place standing in the polls is warranted. She is neither a horrible debater nor a gifted one. But since few think she will be Premier there is a risk that viewers take a mental break when she is talking. To overcome that, her themes, cadence, poise and performance must hit a higher standard, or she becomes barely noticeable. Which seemed to be the case last night.

Kathleen Wynne’s night was a moment of reckoning for the sins of Dalton McGuinty. Without his record hanging around her neck, chances are she would have come off easily as the best choice to be Premier. She is clearly smart, on top of the policy issues facing the province, and seems more authentic, less packaged than her Tory rival.

But too often, she found herself wounded by blunt attacks on the integrity and trustworthiness of Liberals. When Mr. Hudak said, more or less, “It’s not a parking ticket. It’s not a mistake. …they wasted your money to save Liberal seats… If they get away with it they’ll do it again” he touched a nerve. Ms. Wynne’s “it was wrong…it was bad…I’m sorry” was maybe the best she could do, in the circumstances, but that’s not saying much. The puck was in her end much of the night, and in the Liberal net several times.

Ms. Wynne needed a night spent attacking and finishing off Mr. Hudak’s credibility as an economic steward, and stoking fears of brutal service cutbacks, labour disputes and economic reversal. Her forays into this territory were awkward and tepid.

It’s impossible, at this point, to say whether the debate last night will have any lasting effect. Lots of voters will not have tuned in, and while their views might be affected by follow on coverage and word of mouth, only rarely does this turn into a sustained momentum shift.

To my eyes, Mr. Hudak did well enough to breathe some new life into a struggling campaign, but he still faces a province not in the mood for 100,000 job cuts. For Ms. Wynne, the best news is there won’t be another one of these debates, because in that format, she knows she can’t run on, or hide from, the record of the McGuinty government.

Bruce Anderson is the chairman of polling firm Abacus Data and a founding partner of i2 Ideas and Issues Advertising.

Download all our releases from the week

1. Ontario Liberals Lead by 7; Closer Race Among Likely Voters

2. Million Dollar Jobs Plan Driving Campaign Agenda

3. Liberals ahead among self-described “middle-class” voters

Federal Liberals lead by 27 in Newfoundland and Labrador

According to a new VOCM-Abacus Data random telephone survey of 600 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador conducted from July 28 to August 1, the federal Liberal Party holds a large, 27-point lead over the federal Conservative Party.

The federal Liberals have 54% support among committed voters compared with 27% for the Tories and 15% for the NDP. The Green Party has 1% support while 4% said they would vote for another party.

Among all respondents, 14% said they were undecided.

Compared to the 2011 Federal Election results, the Liberals are up 16-points while the NDP are down 18-points. Conservative support is fairly consistent, down one from the 2011 election.

fedvote

Demographically, the Liberals lead among men and women (men 62%, women 45%), and among all age groups. Among those aged 60 and over, the Liberals have a very large 38-point lead over the federal Tories. The Liberals have 59% support among committed voters aged 60 and over compared to 21% for the Conservatives and 13% for the NDP.

Regionally, the picture is similar. The federal Liberals have a substantial lead in every region of the province. On the Avalon Peninsula and in St. John’s the Liberals lead by 30-points with 54% of committed voter support. The Tories are at 24% while the NDP, which holds two seats in St. John’s, has 18% of the vote.

When we compare provincial and federal voting intentions there is a fairly strong correlation between the two. 89% of those who said they would vote for the NL Liberals would also support the federal Liberals. Similarly, 76% of provincial NDP supporters would support their federal cousins. Among NL PC voters however, the correlation is a little weaker. While 70% of NL PC voters would support the federal Conservatives, 17% said they would vote for Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberals.

Analysis from Abacus Data

Our polling indicates that not only is Newfoundland and Labrador trending Liberal provincially, but it is federally as well. The federal Liberals are now well ahead of either the federal Conservatives or NDP leading by almost thirty percentage points. That lead extends across all demographic groups and regions of the province and is a significant improvement over the party’s vote share in the 2011 Federal Election.

The last time the Liberals had a majority of the support in NL in a federal election was in 1993 when the party won an astonishing 67% of the vote. In 2011, the Liberals received 38% of the vote, down from the 47% it received in 2008. In 2006, when the Tories defeated the Liberals, 43% voted Liberal compared with 43% who voted Conservative.

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey commissioned by VOCM was conducted with 600 eligible voters living in Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey was completed from July 28 to August 1, 2014.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 500 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of Newfoundland and Labrador. The tables within this report detail the weighted and unweighted counts for the sample.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA:

Abacus Data is an innovative, fast growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

NL Liberals lead PCs by 14

According to a new VOCM-Abacus Data random telephone survey of 600 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador conducted from July 28 to August 1, the NL Liberals continue to hold a large lead over the PC Party.

The Liberals lead the Tories by 14-points with support for the Liberals at 48% among committed voters compared with 34% for the Tories and 16% for the NDP. Support is the same as the previous VOCM-Abacus poll back in January 2014 following the resignation of Premier Kathy Dunderdale.

Among all respondents, 14% said they were undecided while 1% said they would not vote.

If a provincial election was held today, which political party would you vote for in your local electoral district? Would you vote…
Change since Jan 2014 in Brackets

All Respondents
(n=600) Committed Voted
(n=512)
Liberal 41% (+4) 48% (-1)
PC 29% (+3) 34% (-)
NDP 13% (+1) 16% (+1)
Other parties 1% (-) 1% (-1)
Undecided 14% (-8)
Not voting 1% (-1)
Margin of Error + 4.1% + 4.4%
Liberals ahead in all regions of Newfoundland and Labrador

The Liberal Party leads in all regions of the province. On the Avalon Peninsula and in St. John’s, the Liberals have a 13-point lead over the PCs among committed voters. The Liberals have the support of 47% of committed voters compared to 34% for the PCs and 19% for the NDP.

In Eastern and Central Newfoundland, the Liberals lead by 11-points with 48% of committed voter support compared with 37% for the PCs and 10% for the NDP.

And in Western Newfoundland and Labrador, the Liberals lead by 22-points, with 52% of committed voters supporting the Liberals compared with 30% for the PCs and 16% for the NDP.

Half of past PC supporters are currently supporting the PCs; 26% of former NDP voters now back the Liberals

When we compare current vote intention with how voters said they voted in the 2011 provincial election, the Liberal Party’s lead is built around three factors: it is holding most of its previous support (82% of former Liberal voters currently support the party), it has attracted 27% of former PC supporters while also gaining the support of 26% of those who voted NDP in the last provincial election.

Users from all levels of digital trading proficiency will not find it hard to get started with the profit-amplifying solution. They should be completely familiar with the procedure if they have ever gotten started with a Forex trading tool. This robotic tool provides a well-versed and completely free demo site for tackling the fear of trade experiencing. You can perform any number of free trials and feel yourself up with the confidence level. Once you are an expert, you can move on to the special instruction page and discover more here totrain yourself with using the special trading features of this robot.

One has to enter a couple of basic details into a sign-up form and will then receive a confirmatory email into his or her private inbox. The link applied inside will lead them to a trusted and regulated partnering broker platform’s web page and users can proceed to open a trading account.

The Progressive Conservative Party has the support of 53% of its former supporters. Twenty-seven percent (27%) of former PC supporters now say they would vote Liberal while 13% said they are undecided. Six percent of former PC supporters said they would now vote NDP.

The NDP has lost about four in ten of its past voters with 26% saying they would vote Liberal and 7% saying they would vote PC. Nine percent of past NDP voters are undecided about how they would vote.

NL Liberals have the largest pool of accessible voters

The survey also asked respondents if they would consider voting for each of the three main political parties. The Liberals have the largest pool of accessible voters with two in three eligible voters in NL saying they would consider voting Liberal. This compares with 52% for the PCs and 39% for the NDP.

Among those who would consider voting Liberal, 59% say they would vote Liberal if the provincial election was held at the time of the survey. Another 17% would vote PC while 9% would vote NDP.

Among those who would consider voting PC, 52% said they would vote PC compared to 24% who would vote Liberal and 7% who would vote NDP.

Among NDP supporters, only one in three of those who would consider voting NDP would do so if an election was held at the time of the survey. Another 34% said they would vote Liberal while 16% would vote PC.

Regardless of how you actually vote, would you consider or not consider voting for the following PROVINCIAL political parties?

All Respondents
(n=600)
Would consider voting Liberal 66%
Would consider voting PC 52%
Would consider voting NDP 39%
Health care and the economy are the top issues for voters

When asked what they thought was the most important issue facing Newfoundland and Labrador (unprompted), 29% of eligible voters surveyed said health care, followed by the economy and jobs (17%), government accountability and leadership (10%), Muskrat Falls or electricity prices (8%) and the budget deficit or government debt (7%). Other issues raised included taxes (6%), education (6%), infrastructure and roads (7%), and the fishery (4%).

In a follow up question, respondents were asked which party would best manage the issue they considered most important. Overall, the Liberal Party had an advantage over the PC Party with one in three respondents (36%) selecting the Liberals as the party that would best deal with the issue they believed to be most important followed by the PCs (28%) and the NDP (11%). Twenty-one percent of respondents were unsure which party would best manage the issue they identified while 4% said none of them would be best to deal with the issue.

Which party in Newfoundland and Labrador is best able to deal with [issue]?

Health care
(n=190) Economy and jobs
(n=110) Government accountability / Leadership
(n=63)
Liberal 39% 42% 48%
PC 24% 33% 13%
NDP 8% 7% 10%
Unsure 24% 16% 22%
On the three top issues identified by respondents (health care, economy and jobs, and leadership), the Liberal Party has a substantive advantage over the PCs. Among those who said health care was the most important issue facing the province, 39% selected the Liberals as best to deal with the issue, followed by the PCs (24%) and NDP (8%). Twenty-four percent were unsure which party would best deal with health care.

For eligible voters who thought jobs and economy were most important, 42% selected the Liberals as best able to deal with the issue, followed by the PCs (33%) and the NDP (7%),

Finally, on government accountability or leadership, the Liberals have a big lead with 48% of those selecting the issue as most important picking the Liberals as best to deal with government accountability compared with 13% for the PCs and 10% for the NDP.

Insights from Abacus Data

Since January, the NL Liberal Party continues to hold a substantial lead over the incumbent PC Party. The Liberals lead the Tories by 14-points and lead in all regions of the province and among all key demographic groups.

As the PC Party prepares to elect its new leader, the party faces a difficult political environment. While 52% of eligible voters would consider voting PC, it faces a popular Liberal Party with a substantially larger pool of accessible voters (66%). Moreover, the Liberals have an advantage on all the key issues voters think are most important to the province. On health care, the economy, and government accountability, voters who care about those issues are more likely to select the Liberals as best to manage them than the Tories.

With a popular leader (see tomorrow’s release) in Dwight Ball and positive issue positioning, the Liberals are well placed with just over a year out from the next election. The party has rebuilt its support by attracting a quarter of past voters from the PCs and the NDP. It leads the Tories in support among all age groups, among men and women, and among voters with different levels of educational attainment.

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey commissioned by VOCM was conducted with 600 eligible voters living in Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey was completed from July 28 to August 1, 2014.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 500 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of Newfoundland and Labrador. The tables within this report detail the weighted and unweighted counts for the sample.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA:

Abacus Data is an innovative, fast growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

Canada’s Best and Worst Provinces: 2014 edition

Alberta still reigns: viewed as best managed, lowest income taxes, and best place to open a new business

Today Abacus celebrates our 3rd annual Best and Worst Provinces Survey release. Just as we did in 2013 and 2012, Abacus has measured Canadian perceptions on a number of metrics.

As we approach Canada Day, Canadians were once again asked their opinion on country’s best and worst provinces. The survey found that Alberta and British Columbia topped the list on five of the six positive attributes tested while Quebec topped the list in three of five of the negative attributes tested.

Alberta was most likely to be viewed as the best managed province, the province with the lowest income taxes, and as the best place to open a business. In contrast, Quebec was most likely to be viewed as the worst managed province, the worst place to open a business, and the province with the least friendly people.

Other winners (or losers) included British Columbia as having the most beautiful scenery and the place Canadians would most like to visit on a vacation and Newfoundland and Labrador as having the friendliest people. Ontario was perceived to have the highest income taxes while Saskatchewan had the unfortunate distinction of being perceived to have the least beautiful scenery in the country.

Canada Map Best and Worst

Best and Worst Managed

2014
Best managed: Alberta (40%), Ontario (17%), British Columbia (16%)
Worst managed: Quebec (40%), Ontario (23%), Newfoundland and Labrador (7%) / British Columbia (7%) / Alberta (7%)

2013
Best managed: Alberta (35%), Ontario (21%), British Columbia (14%)
Worst managed: Quebec (43%), Ontario (24%), Newfoundland and Labrador (7%)

There were some small changes in Canadians’ perceptions of provincial management from 2013 to 2014. Alberta continued to be seen as Canada’s best managed province by a plurality of Canadians, rebounding by 5% from its 2013 low and finishing at 40%.

Quebec, in contrast, continued to be perceived as the worst managed province by the lion’s share of Canadians (43%). Ontario, meanwhile, was the most polarizing province, with nearly a quarter of respondents seeing it as both the best and worst managed in 2014. Newfoundland and Labrador is joined by British Columbia and Alberta in a tie for the third spot.

Lowest and Highest Income Taxes

2014
Lowest: Alberta (49%), Newfoundland and Labrador (8%) / Prince Edward Island (8%)
Highest: Ontario (31%), Quebec (29%), British Columbia (18%)

2013
Lowest: Alberta (45%), Newfoundland and Labrador (10%), Saskatchewan (7%)
Highest: Ontario (31%), Quebec (28%), British Columbia (19%)

Alberta topped the list again as the province Canadians believed to have the lowest income taxes. The second and third spots are now shared by Newfoundland and Labrador and PEI, locked in a dead heat at 8% each. This battle has bumped Saskatchewan out of its top 3 finish from 2013.

Ontario and Quebec were again almost tied as the province considered to have the highest income taxes followed by British Columbia in third at 19%. Considering that Ontario and B.C. have some of the lowest taxes in the country, the results present a perception problem for both provinces. It seems the grass is always greener when it comes to tax rates in other provinces.

Best and Worst Place to Open a Business

2014
Best Place: Alberta (37%), Ontario (24%), British Columbia (14%)
Worst Place: Quebec (26%), Newfoundland and Labrador (17%), Ontario (16%)

2013
Best Place: Alberta (33%), Ontario (27%), British Columbia (13%)
Worst Place: Quebec (27%), Newfoundland and Labrador (19%), Prince Edward Island (13%)

Alberta was yet again seen as Canada’s most business friendly province with over a third of respondents saying it was the best place in Canada to open a business. Ontario was second with 27% followed by British Columbia at 14%.

Quebec was perceived to be the worst place to open a business followed by Newfoundland and Labrador, while Ontario replaced PEI in the third ‘worst place to open a business’ slot.

Most and Least Beautiful Scenery

2014
Most Beautiful: British Columbia (57%), Newfoundland and Labrador (10%), Quebec (7%)
Least Beautiful: Saskatchewan (46%), Manitoba (20%), Ontario (10%)

2013
Most Beautiful: British Columbia (54%), PEI (9%), Newfoundland and Labrador (8%)
Least Beautiful: Saskatchewan (43%), Manitoba (20%), Quebec (8%)

B.C. once again topped the list of most beautiful provinces, “Beautiful British Columbia” is an appropriate slogan for Canada’s westernmost province. More than half of all respondents (57%) felt that B.C. had the most beautiful scenery while Newfoundland and Labrador inches up one notch to take second place from PEI, a province that didn’t even make it into the top of the list this year thanks to third place coup by Quebec.

Saskatchewan can’t seem to catch a break as it was again perceived to be the least beautiful province, followed by Manitoba and Quebec in third.

Most and Least Friendly People

2014
Most Friendly: Newfoundland and Labrador (22%), Quebec (14%), Ontario (11%)
Least Friendly: Quebec (47%), Ontario (29%), Alberta (7%) / British Columbia (7%)

2013
Most Friendly: Newfoundland and Labrador (22%), Quebec (16%), Nova Scotia (12%)
Least Friendly: Quebec (46%), Ontario (29%), Alberta (8%)

This category saw a small change for third place compared to the results from 2013. Newfoundlanders and Labradoreans were again most likely to be considered Canada’s most friendly, followed by Quebec and Ontario, which has knocked Nova Scotia out of the top three. Over one in four respondents selected Canada’s easternmost province as the friendliest, followed by Quebec and Ontario. As a region, Atlantic Canada was seen as the friendliest by almost half of Canadians.

Quebec was perceived to have Canada’s least friendly people, as over four in ten respondents selected La Belle Province. Ontario was second at 29% while Alberta tied with British Columbia for third at 7% each.

Place Canadians Would Most Like to Visit

2014
Most Like to Visit: British Columbia (35%), PEI (15%), Newfoundland and Labrador (14%)

2013
Most Like to Visit: British Columbia (33%), PEI (13%), Newfoundland and Labrador (12%)

Overall, there was no observed change in travel preference between 2013 and 2014. Canadians, it seems, want to visit the coast, with three-quarters of Canadians selecting a coastal province for their vacation destination of choice. While a third of Canadians would like to visit British Columbia (35%), 43% would like to visit one of the Atlantic provinces.

Methodology
The survey was conducted online with 1033 respondents in English and French using an internet survey programmed and collected by Abacus Data. A random sample of panelists was invited to participate in the survey from a representative panel of Canadians. The survey was completed from June 6 to 7, 2014.

Since the online survey was not a random, probability based sample, a margin of error could not be calculated. The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association prohibits statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates with regard to most online panels.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 1033 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, education level, and region.

These questions were posed as part of the Abacus Data monthly Omnibus survey.

Nearly 60% of Pickering/Ajax Residents Opposed to a New or Expanded Casino Built within 5km of Their Home Nearly 60% of Pickering/Ajax Residents Opposed to a New or Expanded Casino Built within 5km of Their Home

A new random telephone survey of 500 residents of Pickering and Ajax finds the percentage of respondents strongly opposed to a casino in Pickering is far greater than the number who strongly support a casino (32% strongly oppose vs. 14% strongly support).

Overall, one in two residents (50%) are opposed to building a casino in Pickering, as it is currently proposed. 30% support the casino development while 10% of residents are unsure. Opposition to a casino was also stronger among women (54%) and older residents (60+, 58% opposed).

“There is significant opposition to a new casino in Pickering and Ajax,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto. “And that opposition intensifies when we test a casino built within five kilometers of a resident’s home. Most residents think there are enough gaming establishments already in the region, and half are concerned about the extra costs the development would mean for policing and other social programs.”

When asked if they would support or oppose a new or expanded casino built within five kilometers of their home, 41% of respondents said they were strongly opposed with another 17% mostly opposed.

The survey also found that:

51% of residents agree that a new or expanded casino would bring extra costs for community policing and other related social programs that will have to be paid for by residents of Ajax and Pickering. 41% disagreed while 8% were unsure.
64% of residents agree that there are enough gaming establishments in the Ajax/Pickering/Scugog region already. 30% disagreed while 6% were unsure.
“The Mississaugas of Scugog Island First Nation has been proudly running the Great Blue Heron Charity Casino for nearly twenty years. It has provided much needed economic stability and employment for my people, as well as significant charitable donations to organizations in need. A new or expanded casino in the Pickering/Ajax region threatens this success and we are pleased to see that the people of this area are on our side. Politicians need to listen,” said Chief Kelly LaRocca.

As the survey was conducted during the Ontario provincial election, respondents were also asked how they would vote if the provincial election was held at the time of the survey. The survey found that the Ontario Liberal Party had a ten-point lead over the PCs (32% vs. 22%) with the NDP and Green Party well back in third and fourth place respectively. Overall 32% of residents said they were undecided about who they would vote for.

For more information about the survey and the results, please contact:

Chief Kelly LaRocca
The Mississaugas of Scugog Island First Nation
(905) 441-4836

David Coletto, PhD
Chief Executive Officer, Abacus Data
david@abacusdata.ca
(613) 232-2806

Methodology

The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted May 12 to 15, 2014, among a random sample of 500 adults 18 years of age or older living in Pickering and Ajax. The survey was conducted by live interviewers in Toronto, Ontario. 250 interviews were conducted in Pickering and 250 interviews were conducted in Ajax.

The survey was commissioned by the Mississaugas of Scugog Island First Nation.

The statistics of a random sample of 500 respondents are accurate to within 4.5 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or 613-232-2806.