Author Archive: Felecia Lowe

NL Liberals lead PCs by 14

According to a new VOCM-Abacus Data random telephone survey of 600 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador conducted from July 28 to August 1, the NL Liberals continue to hold a large lead over the PC Party.

The Liberals lead the Tories by 14-points with support for the Liberals at 48% among committed voters compared with 34% for the Tories and 16% for the NDP. Support is the same as the previous VOCM-Abacus poll back in January 2014 following the resignation of Premier Kathy Dunderdale.

Among all respondents, 14% said they were undecided while 1% said they would not vote.

If a provincial election was held today, which political party would you vote for in your local electoral district? Would you vote…
Change since Jan 2014 in Brackets

All Respondents
(n=600) Committed Voted
(n=512)
Liberal 41% (+4) 48% (-1)
PC 29% (+3) 34% (-)
NDP 13% (+1) 16% (+1)
Other parties 1% (-) 1% (-1)
Undecided 14% (-8)
Not voting 1% (-1)
Margin of Error + 4.1% + 4.4%
Liberals ahead in all regions of Newfoundland and Labrador

The Liberal Party leads in all regions of the province. On the Avalon Peninsula and in St. John’s, the Liberals have a 13-point lead over the PCs among committed voters. The Liberals have the support of 47% of committed voters compared to 34% for the PCs and 19% for the NDP.

In Eastern and Central Newfoundland, the Liberals lead by 11-points with 48% of committed voter support compared with 37% for the PCs and 10% for the NDP.

And in Western Newfoundland and Labrador, the Liberals lead by 22-points, with 52% of committed voters supporting the Liberals compared with 30% for the PCs and 16% for the NDP.

Half of past PC supporters are currently supporting the PCs; 26% of former NDP voters now back the Liberals

When we compare current vote intention with how voters said they voted in the 2011 provincial election, the Liberal Party’s lead is built around three factors: it is holding most of its previous support (82% of former Liberal voters currently support the party), it has attracted 27% of former PC supporters while also gaining the support of 26% of those who voted NDP in the last provincial election.

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The Progressive Conservative Party has the support of 53% of its former supporters. Twenty-seven percent (27%) of former PC supporters now say they would vote Liberal while 13% said they are undecided. Six percent of former PC supporters said they would now vote NDP.

The NDP has lost about four in ten of its past voters with 26% saying they would vote Liberal and 7% saying they would vote PC. Nine percent of past NDP voters are undecided about how they would vote.

NL Liberals have the largest pool of accessible voters

The survey also asked respondents if they would consider voting for each of the three main political parties. The Liberals have the largest pool of accessible voters with two in three eligible voters in NL saying they would consider voting Liberal. This compares with 52% for the PCs and 39% for the NDP.

Among those who would consider voting Liberal, 59% say they would vote Liberal if the provincial election was held at the time of the survey. Another 17% would vote PC while 9% would vote NDP.

Among those who would consider voting PC, 52% said they would vote PC compared to 24% who would vote Liberal and 7% who would vote NDP.

Among NDP supporters, only one in three of those who would consider voting NDP would do so if an election was held at the time of the survey. Another 34% said they would vote Liberal while 16% would vote PC.

Regardless of how you actually vote, would you consider or not consider voting for the following PROVINCIAL political parties?

All Respondents
(n=600)
Would consider voting Liberal 66%
Would consider voting PC 52%
Would consider voting NDP 39%
Health care and the economy are the top issues for voters

When asked what they thought was the most important issue facing Newfoundland and Labrador (unprompted), 29% of eligible voters surveyed said health care, followed by the economy and jobs (17%), government accountability and leadership (10%), Muskrat Falls or electricity prices (8%) and the budget deficit or government debt (7%). Other issues raised included taxes (6%), education (6%), infrastructure and roads (7%), and the fishery (4%).

In a follow up question, respondents were asked which party would best manage the issue they considered most important. Overall, the Liberal Party had an advantage over the PC Party with one in three respondents (36%) selecting the Liberals as the party that would best deal with the issue they believed to be most important followed by the PCs (28%) and the NDP (11%). Twenty-one percent of respondents were unsure which party would best manage the issue they identified while 4% said none of them would be best to deal with the issue.

Which party in Newfoundland and Labrador is best able to deal with [issue]?

Health care
(n=190) Economy and jobs
(n=110) Government accountability / Leadership
(n=63)
Liberal 39% 42% 48%
PC 24% 33% 13%
NDP 8% 7% 10%
Unsure 24% 16% 22%
On the three top issues identified by respondents (health care, economy and jobs, and leadership), the Liberal Party has a substantive advantage over the PCs. Among those who said health care was the most important issue facing the province, 39% selected the Liberals as best to deal with the issue, followed by the PCs (24%) and NDP (8%). Twenty-four percent were unsure which party would best deal with health care.

For eligible voters who thought jobs and economy were most important, 42% selected the Liberals as best able to deal with the issue, followed by the PCs (33%) and the NDP (7%),

Finally, on government accountability or leadership, the Liberals have a big lead with 48% of those selecting the issue as most important picking the Liberals as best to deal with government accountability compared with 13% for the PCs and 10% for the NDP.

Insights from Abacus Data

Since January, the NL Liberal Party continues to hold a substantial lead over the incumbent PC Party. The Liberals lead the Tories by 14-points and lead in all regions of the province and among all key demographic groups.

As the PC Party prepares to elect its new leader, the party faces a difficult political environment. While 52% of eligible voters would consider voting PC, it faces a popular Liberal Party with a substantially larger pool of accessible voters (66%). Moreover, the Liberals have an advantage on all the key issues voters think are most important to the province. On health care, the economy, and government accountability, voters who care about those issues are more likely to select the Liberals as best to manage them than the Tories.

With a popular leader (see tomorrow’s release) in Dwight Ball and positive issue positioning, the Liberals are well placed with just over a year out from the next election. The party has rebuilt its support by attracting a quarter of past voters from the PCs and the NDP. It leads the Tories in support among all age groups, among men and women, and among voters with different levels of educational attainment.

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey commissioned by VOCM was conducted with 600 eligible voters living in Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey was completed from July 28 to August 1, 2014.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 500 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of Newfoundland and Labrador. The tables within this report detail the weighted and unweighted counts for the sample.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA:

Abacus Data is an innovative, fast growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

Canada’s Best and Worst Provinces: 2014 edition

Alberta still reigns: viewed as best managed, lowest income taxes, and best place to open a new business

Today Abacus celebrates our 3rd annual Best and Worst Provinces Survey release. Just as we did in 2013 and 2012, Abacus has measured Canadian perceptions on a number of metrics.

As we approach Canada Day, Canadians were once again asked their opinion on country’s best and worst provinces. The survey found that Alberta and British Columbia topped the list on five of the six positive attributes tested while Quebec topped the list in three of five of the negative attributes tested.

Alberta was most likely to be viewed as the best managed province, the province with the lowest income taxes, and as the best place to open a business. In contrast, Quebec was most likely to be viewed as the worst managed province, the worst place to open a business, and the province with the least friendly people.

Other winners (or losers) included British Columbia as having the most beautiful scenery and the place Canadians would most like to visit on a vacation and Newfoundland and Labrador as having the friendliest people. Ontario was perceived to have the highest income taxes while Saskatchewan had the unfortunate distinction of being perceived to have the least beautiful scenery in the country.

Canada Map Best and Worst

Best and Worst Managed

2014
Best managed: Alberta (40%), Ontario (17%), British Columbia (16%)
Worst managed: Quebec (40%), Ontario (23%), Newfoundland and Labrador (7%) / British Columbia (7%) / Alberta (7%)

2013
Best managed: Alberta (35%), Ontario (21%), British Columbia (14%)
Worst managed: Quebec (43%), Ontario (24%), Newfoundland and Labrador (7%)

There were some small changes in Canadians’ perceptions of provincial management from 2013 to 2014. Alberta continued to be seen as Canada’s best managed province by a plurality of Canadians, rebounding by 5% from its 2013 low and finishing at 40%.

Quebec, in contrast, continued to be perceived as the worst managed province by the lion’s share of Canadians (43%). Ontario, meanwhile, was the most polarizing province, with nearly a quarter of respondents seeing it as both the best and worst managed in 2014. Newfoundland and Labrador is joined by British Columbia and Alberta in a tie for the third spot.

Lowest and Highest Income Taxes

2014
Lowest: Alberta (49%), Newfoundland and Labrador (8%) / Prince Edward Island (8%)
Highest: Ontario (31%), Quebec (29%), British Columbia (18%)

2013
Lowest: Alberta (45%), Newfoundland and Labrador (10%), Saskatchewan (7%)
Highest: Ontario (31%), Quebec (28%), British Columbia (19%)

Alberta topped the list again as the province Canadians believed to have the lowest income taxes. The second and third spots are now shared by Newfoundland and Labrador and PEI, locked in a dead heat at 8% each. This battle has bumped Saskatchewan out of its top 3 finish from 2013.

Ontario and Quebec were again almost tied as the province considered to have the highest income taxes followed by British Columbia in third at 19%. Considering that Ontario and B.C. have some of the lowest taxes in the country, the results present a perception problem for both provinces. It seems the grass is always greener when it comes to tax rates in other provinces.

Best and Worst Place to Open a Business

2014
Best Place: Alberta (37%), Ontario (24%), British Columbia (14%)
Worst Place: Quebec (26%), Newfoundland and Labrador (17%), Ontario (16%)

2013
Best Place: Alberta (33%), Ontario (27%), British Columbia (13%)
Worst Place: Quebec (27%), Newfoundland and Labrador (19%), Prince Edward Island (13%)

Alberta was yet again seen as Canada’s most business friendly province with over a third of respondents saying it was the best place in Canada to open a business. Ontario was second with 27% followed by British Columbia at 14%.

Quebec was perceived to be the worst place to open a business followed by Newfoundland and Labrador, while Ontario replaced PEI in the third ‘worst place to open a business’ slot.

Most and Least Beautiful Scenery

2014
Most Beautiful: British Columbia (57%), Newfoundland and Labrador (10%), Quebec (7%)
Least Beautiful: Saskatchewan (46%), Manitoba (20%), Ontario (10%)

2013
Most Beautiful: British Columbia (54%), PEI (9%), Newfoundland and Labrador (8%)
Least Beautiful: Saskatchewan (43%), Manitoba (20%), Quebec (8%)

B.C. once again topped the list of most beautiful provinces, “Beautiful British Columbia” is an appropriate slogan for Canada’s westernmost province. More than half of all respondents (57%) felt that B.C. had the most beautiful scenery while Newfoundland and Labrador inches up one notch to take second place from PEI, a province that didn’t even make it into the top of the list this year thanks to third place coup by Quebec.

Saskatchewan can’t seem to catch a break as it was again perceived to be the least beautiful province, followed by Manitoba and Quebec in third.

Most and Least Friendly People

2014
Most Friendly: Newfoundland and Labrador (22%), Quebec (14%), Ontario (11%)
Least Friendly: Quebec (47%), Ontario (29%), Alberta (7%) / British Columbia (7%)

2013
Most Friendly: Newfoundland and Labrador (22%), Quebec (16%), Nova Scotia (12%)
Least Friendly: Quebec (46%), Ontario (29%), Alberta (8%)

This category saw a small change for third place compared to the results from 2013. Newfoundlanders and Labradoreans were again most likely to be considered Canada’s most friendly, followed by Quebec and Ontario, which has knocked Nova Scotia out of the top three. Over one in four respondents selected Canada’s easternmost province as the friendliest, followed by Quebec and Ontario. As a region, Atlantic Canada was seen as the friendliest by almost half of Canadians.

Quebec was perceived to have Canada’s least friendly people, as over four in ten respondents selected La Belle Province. Ontario was second at 29% while Alberta tied with British Columbia for third at 7% each.

Place Canadians Would Most Like to Visit

2014
Most Like to Visit: British Columbia (35%), PEI (15%), Newfoundland and Labrador (14%)

2013
Most Like to Visit: British Columbia (33%), PEI (13%), Newfoundland and Labrador (12%)

Overall, there was no observed change in travel preference between 2013 and 2014. Canadians, it seems, want to visit the coast, with three-quarters of Canadians selecting a coastal province for their vacation destination of choice. While a third of Canadians would like to visit British Columbia (35%), 43% would like to visit one of the Atlantic provinces.

Methodology
The survey was conducted online with 1033 respondents in English and French using an internet survey programmed and collected by Abacus Data. A random sample of panelists was invited to participate in the survey from a representative panel of Canadians. The survey was completed from June 6 to 7, 2014.

Since the online survey was not a random, probability based sample, a margin of error could not be calculated. The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association prohibits statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates with regard to most online panels.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 1033 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, education level, and region.

These questions were posed as part of the Abacus Data monthly Omnibus survey.

Nearly 60% of Pickering/Ajax Residents Opposed to a New or Expanded Casino Built within 5km of Their Home Nearly 60% of Pickering/Ajax Residents Opposed to a New or Expanded Casino Built within 5km of Their Home

A new random telephone survey of 500 residents of Pickering and Ajax finds the percentage of respondents strongly opposed to a casino in Pickering is far greater than the number who strongly support a casino (32% strongly oppose vs. 14% strongly support).

Overall, one in two residents (50%) are opposed to building a casino in Pickering, as it is currently proposed. 30% support the casino development while 10% of residents are unsure. Opposition to a casino was also stronger among women (54%) and older residents (60+, 58% opposed).

“There is significant opposition to a new casino in Pickering and Ajax,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto. “And that opposition intensifies when we test a casino built within five kilometers of a resident’s home. Most residents think there are enough gaming establishments already in the region, and half are concerned about the extra costs the development would mean for policing and other social programs.”

When asked if they would support or oppose a new or expanded casino built within five kilometers of their home, 41% of respondents said they were strongly opposed with another 17% mostly opposed.

The survey also found that:

51% of residents agree that a new or expanded casino would bring extra costs for community policing and other related social programs that will have to be paid for by residents of Ajax and Pickering. 41% disagreed while 8% were unsure.
64% of residents agree that there are enough gaming establishments in the Ajax/Pickering/Scugog region already. 30% disagreed while 6% were unsure.
“The Mississaugas of Scugog Island First Nation has been proudly running the Great Blue Heron Charity Casino for nearly twenty years. It has provided much needed economic stability and employment for my people, as well as significant charitable donations to organizations in need. A new or expanded casino in the Pickering/Ajax region threatens this success and we are pleased to see that the people of this area are on our side. Politicians need to listen,” said Chief Kelly LaRocca.

As the survey was conducted during the Ontario provincial election, respondents were also asked how they would vote if the provincial election was held at the time of the survey. The survey found that the Ontario Liberal Party had a ten-point lead over the PCs (32% vs. 22%) with the NDP and Green Party well back in third and fourth place respectively. Overall 32% of residents said they were undecided about who they would vote for.

For more information about the survey and the results, please contact:

Chief Kelly LaRocca
The Mississaugas of Scugog Island First Nation
(905) 441-4836

David Coletto, PhD
Chief Executive Officer, Abacus Data
david@abacusdata.ca
(613) 232-2806

Methodology

The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted May 12 to 15, 2014, among a random sample of 500 adults 18 years of age or older living in Pickering and Ajax. The survey was conducted by live interviewers in Toronto, Ontario. 250 interviews were conducted in Pickering and 250 interviews were conducted in Ajax.

The survey was commissioned by the Mississaugas of Scugog Island First Nation.

The statistics of a random sample of 500 respondents are accurate to within 4.5 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or 613-232-2806.

Top Election Issues: Jobs and the Economy

In the early days of the 2014 Ontario election, the issues of jobs and the economy are playing a central role in the parties’ messaging and platforms but also the perceptions of the electorate.

Almost six in ten Ontarians rate the current state of the economy as poor or very poor, with higher levels of pessimism in the southwest and northern regions of the province. Where pessimism about the economy is higher, support for the Ontario Liberals is lower. There is a strong relationship between the two variables.

economy1
That being said, although the Tories have made the economy the central focus of their campaign, voters who identified the economy as their top issue are more likely to identify the Liberal Party as best able to handle the issue. The Tories have successfully set the issue agenda but have not yet convinced enough voters that their plan is superior to either the NDP’s or the Liberal Party’s.

economy2

If the Tories or NDP are going to push the change narrative further, they have to increase the public’s concern about the economic situation in the province. Many Ontarians are not seeing the economic gloom that Tim Hudak is describing. However, where voters are more cognizant of the economic challenges facing their communities, the Liberals are weakest – see SW and Northern Ontario.

economy3

In other words, if Ontarians are going to be convinced that the province needs the “medicine” the Tories are prescribing, they have to agree on the diagnosis. Right now, that does not seem to be the case.

These perceptions may change as voters pay more attention to the campaign and the parties ramp up their advertising and outreach. But right now, the Liberals and Tories are deadlocked in voter intentions partly because there’s no consensus among the electorate about the state of Ontario’s economy.

economy4

Key Findings

Jobs and the economy are the top issue for one in three eligible voters in Ontario (33%).
Honesty and accountability in government (14%), provincial deficit and debt (10%), health care (9%) and electricity prices (7%) round out the top 5 issues.
PC core voters are more likely to identify debt, deficits and accountability as their top issue, while OLP core voters are most likely to identify jobs and the economy.
For the third of eligible voters who selected jobs and the economy as their top issue, a plurality picked the Liberals as best able to manage the issue, followed by the Tories (26%) and the NDP (21%).
Ontarians are split in their evaluations of the provincial economy. Four in ten eligible voters rate the current provincial economy as very good or good while 58% rate it as poor or very poor.
Residents of SW Ontario (postal code R) are most likely to be pessimistic about the Ontario economy.
42% of eligible voters believe their electricity prices have increased a lot in the past year.
None of the major parties or leaders have a significant advantage on economic management competence.
More than half of eligible voters in Ontario said they were unfamiliar with the provincial budget released on May 1.
When asked whether they approved or disapproved of the document, 21% of eligible voters said they approved while 29% disapproved.
Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 2,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from May 14 to 16, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,672 committed voters of the same is +/- 2.4 %, 19 times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

The Million Jobs Math puts the Hudak campaign at a Crossroads

To his credit, Tim Hudak designed his campaign to do what most of the modern political strategy textbooks tell you to do: remember that elections are usually about the economy.Yes, only when the economic situation of the country is good, better international collaborations happen that lead to the further development and recognition of the country, globally! But, for your personal financial upliftment, you can any day rely on the Bitcoin Loophole, instead of waiting for the economic reforms to happen! Ok, so more about Tim Hudak’s campaign!

But it isn’t always that simple.

First, perceptions of the economy aren’t great, but they aren’t bad enough to make it a foregone conclusion that the Liberals were going to be tossed. Here’s some of the math:

12% of Ontarians say the economy is performing “very poorly”. Of this group 3 out of 4 say the Wynne government is doing a lousy job. (That’s 8% of voters)
Another 44% say the state of the economy is “poor”. Among these folks, half rate the government poorly. (Another 22% of voters)
Taken together, this suggests the total number of voters who are unhappy at the state of the economy and blame Premier Wynne is roughly 30%.

million-jobs-bus
The risk for the Progressive Conservatives, heading into this week’s debate is that the campaign is turning into a test of confidence in Mr. Hudak and his economic ideas.

That’s not the kind of number that easily sweeps incumbents out of office, and it reflects the fact that for many people in the province, the wolf doesn’t seem to be on the doorstep.

Let’s slice into a few more numbers from our last poll.

Of all of those who think the economy is in poor or very poor (56%) shape, about 60% think it’s time for another party to take over. That gives you about 34%.

No matter how you slice it, there’s nothing in these numbers that would make the case for the Progressive Conservatives to centre their campaign around a better jobs program.

And that’s before you consider that of the 34% who want a change in economic direction, many had doubts about Tim Hudak, even before events of this week.

Among those who say the economy is poor, half (48%) say Tim Hudak would do a poor job as an economic manager.
Among those who say the economy is “very poor” 61% think Hudak would do a bad job.
In other words, fewer than half of those who want a change in economic direction were confident that Hudak was the change they want.

An obvious first conclusion? The Progressive Conservatives might have been better advised to campaign for change based on corruption, wasteful management and the deep fiscal hole the Liberals have dug.

But once they decided to base their campaign on a superior plan for job growth, they couldn’t afford but have a promising, highly credible, and defensible plan. That’s why this week’s revelations about the Million Jobs math are so important.

The risk for the Progressive Conservatives, heading into this week’s debate is that the campaign is turning into a test of confidence in Mr. Hudak and his economic ideas.

Even without the brutally apparent errors in the job calculations, that would have been a tough campaign to win. To have a hope of victory he must either turn the campaign focus back towards the issues that made more voters angry enough to want change, or somehow rebuild confidence in his own economic judgment, or both. It’s a tall order.

Survey Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 1,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from May 21 to 24, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 864 committed voters of the same is +/- 3.4 %, 19 times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data

Abacus Data is an innovative, fast growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

Paul Davis favourite for PC Leadership; 53% of NL has positive impression of NL Leader Dwight Ball

According to a new VOCM-Abacus Data random telephone survey of 600 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador conducted from July 28 to August 1, PC leadership candidate former Health Minister Paul Davis has the most positive personal rating of the three candidates running to become the next leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Davis also leads in a three-way hypothetical match-up among all respondents and among those who voted PC in the 2011 provincial election. Davis leads former Municipal Affairs Minister Steve Kent by seven-points among all respondents and by 14-points among those respondents who said they voted PC in 2011. Former MHA and cabinet minister John Ottenheimer places third with both groups, trailing Davis by 13-points among all respondents and 16-points among those who voted PC in 2011.

When presented with provincial ballots with each of the leadership candidates named as PC leader, the Liberal Party and its leader Dwight Ball lead on all three, although a PC Party with Davis as leader performs slightly better than when voting preference is tested with Kent or Ottenheimer as PC Leader.

Overall Impressions: Davis +35, Kent +21, Ottenheimer +20 vs. Dwight Ball +41, Lorraine Michael +3

Respondents were asked how they feel about the three candidates running for PC Leader as well as the two other political party leaders in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Overall, respondents were more likely to have a positive impression of former Health Minister Paul Davis than either of his two rivals, although all three candidates had net positive ratings. Forty-six percent of respondents had a positive impression of Davis compared with 11% who had a negative impression. His net rating was +35, 14-points higher than Steve Kent and 15-points higher than John Ottenheimer.

However, none of the three leadership candidates had more favourable impressions than Liberal Leader Dwight Ball whose net positive rating was +41. Overall, 53% of survey respondents had a positive impression of Dwight Ball while 12% had a negative impression of him. NDP Leader Lorraine Michael’s ratings were more mixed with 33% saying they have a favourable impression of her compared with 30% who have a negative impression.

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Slide1

Slide2

When we drill down and focus only on those respondents who said they voted PC in the 2011 provincial election, Paul Davis’ advantage over his leadership rivals increases. Davis’ personal rating among PC voters is +48 with 58% having a positive impression compared with 10% who have a negative impression. Both Steve Kent (+31) and John Ottenheimer (+22) are in positive territory, but trail Davis by wide margins.

Slide3

The NL Liberal Party’s lead on the ballot (which we released yesterday) is likely driven by the fact that a plurality of former PC voters have a positive impression of Liberal Leader Dwight Ball. Among PC voters in 2011, 44% said they have a positive impression of the Liberal Leader compared with 19% who have a negative impression giving Ball a net rating of +25, higher than PC leadership candidate John Ottenheimer (+21).

NDP Leader Lorraine Michael’s net rating among PC voters is -19 with 24% saying they have a positive impression of her compared with 43% who view her negatively.

The PC Leadership Race

Respondents were then asked to select which of the three PC leadership candidates would be their first choice if they were personally voting to select the next leader. Among all respondents, Paul Davis had a seven-point lead over Steve Kent and a 13-point lead over John Ottenheimer. Davis was the choice of one in three respondents (34%) followed by Kent at 27% and Ottenheimer at 21%. Eighteen percent of respondents were undecided.

Slide4

Among those who voted PC in 2011, Davis’ lead increases to 14-points over Kent with 40% selecting the former Health Minister as their first choice. Kent was selected by 26% of former PC voters followed closely by John Ottenheimer at 24%. Ten percent of PC voters were undecided.

And finally, among those voters who said they always vote PC in provincial elections, Davis was selected by 41% compared with 32% who selected Steve Kent. John Ottenheimer was well back in third with 21% among core PC Party supporters.

Hypothetical Provincial Ballots with Three PC Leadership Candidates

Finally, voters were presented with three hypothetical provincial ballots in which the names of the three PC leadership candidate were rotated and the names of the other party leaders were mentioned. Respondents were asked which party they would support if a provincial election was held at the time of the survey.

None of the three PC leadership candidates were able to overtake the Liberal lead among committed voters but Paul Davis performed best in the hypothetical match-ups.

Slide5

With Davis as leader, the Liberals lead the Tories by 8-points, with the Liberals at 46%, the PCs at 38% and the NDP at 16% among committed voters. With Kent as leader, the Liberal lead grows to 13-points, with the Liberals at 48%, the PCs at 35%, and the NDP at 16%. If John Ottenheimer is named as PC leader, 49% of committed voters said they would vote Liberal compared with 34% for the PCs and 17% for the NDP.

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Analysis from Abacus CEO, David Coletto

As PC Party members across Newfoundland and Labrador meet to elect delegates to the Leadership Convention to be held September 12 and 13, former Health Minister Paul Davis is the preferred choice among all eligible voters and among those who voted PC in 2011. Davis’ personal rating is highest and rivals that of popular Liberal Leader Dwight Ball. While none of the three leadership candidates push the PC Party ahead of the Liberals in hypothetical ballots, Davis does perform best, albeit only slightly better than Steve Kent or John Ottenheimer.

Whoever the Tories elect on September 13 as their next leader and Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, the road to re-election in 2015 will be a tough one. They face a very popular Liberal Leader and the effects of three terms in government.

Based on our polling, Paul Davis seems to be the favourite and best hope for the party at this point. But the goodwill the public has for him personally needs to be translated into support for the party.

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey commissioned by VOCM was conducted with 600 eligible voters living in Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey was completed from July 28 to August 1, 2014.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 500 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of Newfoundland and Labrador. The tables within this report detail the weighted and unweighted counts for the sample.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA:

Abacus Data is an innovative, fast growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

Wynne still ahead as “Best Premier” but unsure up on measure

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Yesterday, we reported that the Liberals hold a small lead over the Tories but that little has changed in voting intentions in the past week of the campaign.  While a majority of eligible voters in Ontario want change and only 24% think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, a large portion are not yet ready to pass judgment on the Wynne government.

The stable horse race numbers mirror perceptions about the political party leaders. While NDP Leader Andrea Horwath continues to have the most favourable personal numbers (or the least negative), Kathleen Wynne continues to have a small advantage on who would make the best Premier.  Although, the percentage of undecided respondents on the best premier question has increased to 41%.

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There is little evidence in our data that Horwath’s shift to the centre, which has angered a number of NDP activists, has hurt her reputation with much of the NDP’s voting base.  Among those in the NDP core, 72% have a positive impression of the NDP Leader, a number comparable or stronger than the equivalent for Kathleen Wynne or Tim Hudak among their core supporters.

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The results continue to suggest that many eligible voters have still not paid much attention to the campaign or are not satisfied with the choices on offer. Talking about the choices, not every time, we are offered the suitable ones but, when offered, it is only sensible to catch hold of it for the purpose of our betterment! One such better choices to favor your financial situation is the Crypto CFD Trader, which you should appropriately utilize for your financial betterment! Now, more about the election!

With a high percentage saying they are unsure which leader would make the best Premier, the opportunity for a big shift in vote intention is still possible.

Andrea Horwath still has the best opportunity going forward to capitalize on the fluidity of the electorate as fewer voters have a negative impression of her.  If she performs well in debate in Northern Ontario and in the leaders’ debate on June 3, voters may be receptive to her message.

Key Findings

  • Andrea Horwath continues to have the best leadership evaluation among eligible voters.  Her net impression is +10, compared with  -6 for Kathleen Wynne and -21 for Tim Hudak.
  • Kathleen Wynne leads by three on “Best Premier” among eligible voters but the percentage of eligible voters saying they are unsure is up from last week:  Wynne 23%, Hudak 20%, Horwath 16%, Unsure 41%.
  • Wynne leads as best Premier among all age groups except for those aged 60 and over.  Among the oldest group of voters, Hudak has a four-point lead over Wynne.
  • •While prominent NDP members and supporters may have expressed frustration with the NDP, there doesn’t seem to be much hostility among the broader NDP base.  Among the core NDP support group, 72% have a positive impression of Andrea Horwath compared to 2% who have a negative impression.
  • When it comes to who would make the best Premier, Wynne leads her competitors in two key swing groups – those who would consider voting PC and Liberal (Wynne 30% vs. Hudak 16%) and those who would consider voting Liberal and NDP (Wynne 39% vs. Horwath 19%).
  • Sixty seven percent of those in the “swing” group (would consider voting for all three parties) are unsure who would make the best Premier.

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Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 1,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from May 21 to 24, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.  The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 864 committed voters of the same is +/- 3.4 %, 19 times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

– See more at: http://web.archive.org/web/20140810153647/http://abacusinsider.com/ontario-election-2/wynne-best-premier-voters-increasingly-unsure-choices-premier/#sthash.15QZzqHm.dpuf

Federal Politics: Liberals lead Tories by 3

A new national survey (June 25 to July 3, 2014) shows the federal Liberal Party with a 3-point lead among committed voters, at 34% followed by the Conservatives at 31% and the NDP at 23%. Among all eligible voters 28% said they would vote Liberal, 25% Conservative, 19% NDP and 19% are undecided. Since March, Liberal support is unchanged while the Tories are up three and the BQ is down three.

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Three Way Race in BC, Liberals ahead in Quebec

This survey oversampled respondents in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec allowing us to make more confident assessments of regional voting intentions. In British Columbia, the three main parties are locked in a close three-way race with the Conservatives at 32% among committed voters and the NDP and Liberals tied for second at 28%.

In Ontario, the Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied with the Liberals at 36% and the Conservatives at 34%. The NDP is well back in third at 22%.

In Quebec, the Liberals have a 12-point lead over the NDP with the Liberals at 36%, the NDP at 24% and the BQ at 19%. The Conservative Party remains in fourth place in Quebec at 17% of committed voter support.

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Liberals lead among women and those aged 30 to 44. Tories lead among those aged 60 and over.

The Liberals have a six-point lead over the Tories among women (35% to 29%) while the two parties are tied among male voters (Liberals 34%, Tories 33%). Among different age groups, the Tories lead by six among those aged 60 and over while the Liberals have a 13-point lead over the Tories among those aged 30 to 44. The Liberals also do well among those who have some university education, leading the Tories by 10-points (Liberals 39%, Conservative 29%, NDP 23%).

Liberals gain from both Conservative and NDP 2011 voters

The Liberals are doing well at holding their 2011 supporters and drawing from those who voted NDP and Conservative in 2011. Among those who voted Tory in 2011, 13% intend to vote Liberal. Among those who voted NDP, 23% intend to support the Liberals. In contrast, the Liberals have maintained 89% of their former vote, losing 5% of past supporters to the NDP and 3% to the Tories.

Second Choices

When committed voters are asked which party would be their second choice, the NDP and Liberals are tied with 25% selecting the NDP as their second choice and 23% selecting the Liberals. Thirteen percent selected the Tories as their second choice while 18% said they had no second choice.

Those who support the Conservative Party were most likely to say they had no second choice (35%) while another 30% of CPC supporters picked the Liberals as their second choice. 19% of Conservative Party supporters selected the NDP as their second choice.

Among Liberal supporters, the NDP was most likely to be selected as their second choice with 38% picking the NDP and 25% selecting the Tories. Nineteen percent of Liberal supporters said they did not have a second choice.

Among NDP supporters, 41% picked the Liberal Party as their second choice while 16% selected either the BQ or Green Party. Twelve percent of NDP supporters selected the Conservative Party as their second choice.

Impression of Federal Party Leaders

Respondents were also asked for their impression of the main party leaders. There has been little change in overall impressions since March 2014. Canadians are more likely to have a positive impression of Justin Trudeau (37%) than any other leader but Tom Mulcair continues to have the most positive net impression. However, a large number of Canadians (16%) still do know enough about Mr. Mulcair to have an opinion of him.

Stephen Harper remains a polarizing figure with 44% saying they have a negative impression of him while 29% have a positive impression leading to a net impression of -15.

Harper Government Approval Rating

Just over one in three Canadians (35%) approve of the job the Harper Government is doing while 43% say they disapprove. Another 22% of Canadians surveyed say they neither approve nor disapprove. This is largely unchanged since March 2014 when 33% of Canadians said they approved of the Harper Government.

Approval of the government is highest in Alberta (50%) and lowest in Quebec (24%). The Harper Government receives higher marks from men (39%) than from women (32%).

Of note, 71% of those who voted Conservative in 2011 approve of the Harper Government’s job performance, while 16% disapprove. Among those who disapprove and voted CPC in 2011, 27% would vote Liberal, 27% would vote NDP, while 25% would vote Conservative. Another 17% say they are currently undecided.

Commentary from Abacus CEO David Coletto

As the summer begins, little has changed in public opinion or federal vote intentions. The Liberals continue to lead the Conservatives, which they have done in our tracking since January 2014. This lead is based on the party’s ability to attract a large proportion of former NDP and Conservative Party supporters. The Liberals are now first or second in every region of the country. They are tied for second in British Columbia, are second in Alberta, and are tied for first with the Tories in Ontario. Moreover, east of the Ottawa River, they had a clear lead in Quebec and in Atlantic Canada.

For the Tories, the government’s approval has remained steady at around 33% to 35% for the last year. The party is strong in the Prairies and competitive in Ontario. Tory support, however, has slipped in BC since 2011 (down 14-points) and Quebec and Atlantic Canada are going to be difficult regions for the party to hold seats or make gains.

For the NDP, the party continues to poll higher than its historic position thanks largely to its support in Quebec. However, it has lost some ground in BC and trails the Liberals and Conservatives in Ontario. Although Tom Mulcair has the highest net positive rating of the three main party leaders, a large number of Canadians still don’t know enough about to form an opinion in regions outside of Quebec. His challenge remains to introduce himself to many voters outside of Quebec.

Methodology

The survey was conducted online with 2,000 respondents by Abacus Data. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.Since the expert’s intervention is here, it shows the superiority of the survey! Likewise, you should also search for the expert suggestions in whichever new things you plan to venture, especially in the case of new financial ventures like the cryptocurrency investment practice! For the unparalleled expert guidance on the same, check here!

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806 or Bruce Anderson at banderson@abacusdata.ca

Liberals lead Tories by 3 as NDP gains.

As we head into the final week of the 2014 Ontario election campaign, the race is too close to call. Since last week, support for the Liberals is down three points while NDP support is up four. The Liberals continue to do well in Toronto and in the communities surrounding Toronto but their support has slipped in other parts of the province.

The uncertainty of the election is related to the fact that there is no dominant ballot question. When we asked respondents what the Ontario election has been about, no answer was selected by more than one in five eligible voters. If that shifts between now and June 12, we could be in for a surprise.

If the election is about electing a government they can trust, the Tories and NDP will do well. If it is about dealing with the economic troubles facing the province, the Tories will win. But if the election is about stopping Tim Hudak and protecting social programs, the Liberals will win. If it is about all these factors, we are likely in for a minority legislature, similar to that produced by the 2011 election.Ballot1

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Liberals

The past week has been tough for the Liberals. Their support is down three points, Kathleen Wynne’s personal numbers have worsened, and more people would be dismayed if the Liberals formed government after June 12. However, Wynne still leads as best premier over Hudak and Horwath.

BestPremier

PCs

Hudak’s positive debate performance did little to improve PC support. In fact, Hudak’s personal numbers have actually worsened since before the debate. For the first time in our tracking, a majority of eligible voters have a negative impression of the PC leader. However, Tory supporters are the most committed and they are more likely to vote. If the rise in NDP supports holds out until election day, that could benefit the Tories in some close ridings around the GTA.

NDP

Although Horwath’s debate performance was neither great nor poor, NDP support has risen largely as a result of increasing unease with either the Liberals or the Tories. They lead in the North, are competitive in southwestern Ontario, and have strong support in electoral districts they currently hold.

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Key Findings

The race has tightened among eligible voters with the Liberals now leading the Tories by 3 points. NDP support is up four points since last week, the highest we have tracked since the start of the campaign – OLP 34%, PC 31%, NDP 28%.
Among likely voters, the Liberals and PCs are tied with the NDP eight points back in third – OLP 34%, PC 34%, NDP 26%.
Liberals lead in Toronto, among those aged 30 to 44, among public sector employees, and are tied with the NDP among women.
Tories lead in the SW, among those aged 45 to 59, among private sector employees, and among men. They are now tied with the Liberals among those aged 60 and over.
The NDP leads in the North.
54% of eligible voters believe it is time for another party to take over, up 6 since last week. 24% believe the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, unchanged since last week.
21% of respondents said the election was about electing a government they could trust while another 20% said it was about how to deal with the economic problems facing the province. 15% percent said it was about electing a party that would do the best job on health, education, and other public services.
32% of eligible voters think the Liberals will win while 25% think the PCs will win. Four in ten (39%) are unsure who will win the provincial election.
The percentage of eligible voters with negative impressions of Kathleen Wynne and Tim Hudak increased since the previous wave of research. For Kathleen Wynne, her net favourable score decreased by five points (from -8 to -13) while Hudak’s decreased score by seven points (from -23 to -30). In contrast, Andrea Horwath’s net favourable score increased by two points (from +5 to +7).
Kathleen Wynne still leads as “best Premier”: Wynne 27%, Hudak 21%, Horwath 20%, 31% unsure.
Our most recent survey has also found a slight decline in enthusiasm for a Liberal government and a rise in the number of people who would be dismayed if the Liberals formed a government after June 12. In our last wave of research, 36% said they would be dismayed with a Liberal government. In this wave, 41% said they would be dismayed.
A weakening of the Liberal situation has not improved things for the Tories however. Perceptions about a PC government were largely unchanged with 46% saying they would be dismayed with a PC government and 18% saying they would be delighted.
Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 1,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from June 4 to 7, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 875 committed voters of the same is +/- 3.4 %, 19 times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Too Close to Call: Liberals and Tories Tied at 36% Among Likely Voters; NDP at 23% Too Close to Call: Liberals and Tories Tied at 36% Among Likely Voters; NDP at 23%

As voters head to the polls on Thursday, the election is too close to call. While the Liberals lead by three points among eligible voters, the Tories and Liberals are tied among likely voters, with 36% each. The NDP’s gains in our last survey have been sustained although they continue to do well among eligible voters with 26% support. However, among likely voters, NDP support has dropped to 23%.

The big wildcard in the election is turnout and the motivation of voters as they decide whether to vote at all. We know that PC voters are more motivated which could make the difference in breaking the tie we report from the survey.

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We are not in a position to call this election for either party. It is clear that either the Liberals or the PCs will win the most votes, and either could also win the most seats. However, we are not making any seat projections.

Despite a long and often negative campaign, our numbers have been consistent throughout the campaign. The Liberals have been ahead among eligible voters since our second week of tracking with the Tories around the low thirties and the NDP around the mid-twenties. While the leaders’ debates stalled Liberal momentum, its effect was not substantial enough to prevent the Liberals from winning.

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Kathleen Wynne has also consistently led as best premier, demonstrating the dilemma many voters are facing as they head out to vote on Thursday. Many like Wynne personally but also think its time for a change. That’s the conflict percolating within many swing voters’ thinking.

Slide27

For Tim Hudak, the opposite is true. A majority of voters have a negative impression of him, and even among PC supporters, positive impressions are tepid at best. But for voters seeking change, he is their best hope. If he wins on Thursday it is because the PC base was motivated and turned out en masse in an otherwise low turnout election.

Finally, for Andrea Horwath, the expectations she and the NDP had at the start of the campaign will likely not be met. Our polling suggests they should do as well as last time in terms of votes, but that might not be enough for many of her critics, especially if the Tories form government.

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Key Findings

The Liberals have a 3-point lead over the PCs among committed eligible voters. There has been little movement in the overall numbers since last week.
Among likely voters, the Liberals and PCs are at 36% each with the NDP in third at 23%.
Liberals lead in Toronto, among those aged 30 to 44, among public sector employees, and among women.
Tories lead in Eastern Ontario and among those aged 60.
The NDP leads in the North and is tied with the PCs in Southwestern Ontario.
Kathleen Wynne has a 5-point lead over Tim Hudak on who would make the best Premier. Among likely voters Wynne leads by only 2 (Wynne 30%, Hudak 28%, Horwath 19%).
55% of eligible voters believe it is time for another party to take over, up 1 since last week. 23% believe the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, unchanged since last week.
20% of respondents said the election was about electing a government they could trust while another 20% said it was about how to deal with the economic problems facing the province.

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15% percent said it was about electing a party that would do the best job on health, education, and other public services while 16% said it was about preventing Tim Hudak from winning the election.
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Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 1,882 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from June 9 to 11, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,653 committed voters of the same is +/- 2.5 %, 19 times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.