Author Archive: Felecia Lowe

Liberals lead Tories by 3 as NDP gains.

As we head into the final week of the 2014 Ontario election campaign, the race is too close to call. Since last week, support for the Liberals is down three points while NDP support is up four. The Liberals continue to do well in Toronto and in the communities surrounding Toronto but their support has slipped in other parts of the province.

The uncertainty of the election is related to the fact that there is no dominant ballot question. When we asked respondents what the Ontario election has been about, no answer was selected by more than one in five eligible voters. If that shifts between now and June 12, we could be in for a surprise.

If the election is about electing a government they can trust, the Tories and NDP will do well. If it is about dealing with the economic troubles facing the province, the Tories will win. But if the election is about stopping Tim Hudak and protecting social programs, the Liberals will win. If it is about all these factors, we are likely in for a minority legislature, similar to that produced by the 2011 election.Ballot1

likely

Liberals

The past week has been tough for the Liberals. Their support is down three points, Kathleen Wynne’s personal numbers have worsened, and more people would be dismayed if the Liberals formed government after June 12. However, Wynne still leads as best premier over Hudak and Horwath.

BestPremier

PCs

Hudak’s positive debate performance did little to improve PC support. In fact, Hudak’s personal numbers have actually worsened since before the debate. For the first time in our tracking, a majority of eligible voters have a negative impression of the PC leader. However, Tory supporters are the most committed and they are more likely to vote. If the rise in NDP supports holds out until election day, that could benefit the Tories in some close ridings around the GTA.

NDP

Although Horwath’s debate performance was neither great nor poor, NDP support has risen largely as a result of increasing unease with either the Liberals or the Tories. They lead in the North, are competitive in southwestern Ontario, and have strong support in electoral districts they currently hold.

ballotquestion1

ballotquestion2

Key Findings

The race has tightened among eligible voters with the Liberals now leading the Tories by 3 points. NDP support is up four points since last week, the highest we have tracked since the start of the campaign – OLP 34%, PC 31%, NDP 28%.
Among likely voters, the Liberals and PCs are tied with the NDP eight points back in third – OLP 34%, PC 34%, NDP 26%.
Liberals lead in Toronto, among those aged 30 to 44, among public sector employees, and are tied with the NDP among women.
Tories lead in the SW, among those aged 45 to 59, among private sector employees, and among men. They are now tied with the Liberals among those aged 60 and over.
The NDP leads in the North.
54% of eligible voters believe it is time for another party to take over, up 6 since last week. 24% believe the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, unchanged since last week.
21% of respondents said the election was about electing a government they could trust while another 20% said it was about how to deal with the economic problems facing the province. 15% percent said it was about electing a party that would do the best job on health, education, and other public services.
32% of eligible voters think the Liberals will win while 25% think the PCs will win. Four in ten (39%) are unsure who will win the provincial election.
The percentage of eligible voters with negative impressions of Kathleen Wynne and Tim Hudak increased since the previous wave of research. For Kathleen Wynne, her net favourable score decreased by five points (from -8 to -13) while Hudak’s decreased score by seven points (from -23 to -30). In contrast, Andrea Horwath’s net favourable score increased by two points (from +5 to +7).
Kathleen Wynne still leads as “best Premier”: Wynne 27%, Hudak 21%, Horwath 20%, 31% unsure.
Our most recent survey has also found a slight decline in enthusiasm for a Liberal government and a rise in the number of people who would be dismayed if the Liberals formed a government after June 12. In our last wave of research, 36% said they would be dismayed with a Liberal government. In this wave, 41% said they would be dismayed.
A weakening of the Liberal situation has not improved things for the Tories however. Perceptions about a PC government were largely unchanged with 46% saying they would be dismayed with a PC government and 18% saying they would be delighted.
Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 1,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from June 4 to 7, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 875 committed voters of the same is +/- 3.4 %, 19 times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Too Close to Call: Liberals and Tories Tied at 36% Among Likely Voters; NDP at 23% Too Close to Call: Liberals and Tories Tied at 36% Among Likely Voters; NDP at 23%

As voters head to the polls on Thursday, the election is too close to call. While the Liberals lead by three points among eligible voters, the Tories and Liberals are tied among likely voters, with 36% each. The NDP’s gains in our last survey have been sustained although they continue to do well among eligible voters with 26% support. However, among likely voters, NDP support has dropped to 23%.

The big wildcard in the election is turnout and the motivation of voters as they decide whether to vote at all. We know that PC voters are more motivated which could make the difference in breaking the tie we report from the survey.

Slide10

We are not in a position to call this election for either party. It is clear that either the Liberals or the PCs will win the most votes, and either could also win the most seats. However, we are not making any seat projections.

Despite a long and often negative campaign, our numbers have been consistent throughout the campaign. The Liberals have been ahead among eligible voters since our second week of tracking with the Tories around the low thirties and the NDP around the mid-twenties. While the leaders’ debates stalled Liberal momentum, its effect was not substantial enough to prevent the Liberals from winning.

Slide6

Kathleen Wynne has also consistently led as best premier, demonstrating the dilemma many voters are facing as they head out to vote on Thursday. Many like Wynne personally but also think its time for a change. That’s the conflict percolating within many swing voters’ thinking.

Slide27

For Tim Hudak, the opposite is true. A majority of voters have a negative impression of him, and even among PC supporters, positive impressions are tepid at best. But for voters seeking change, he is their best hope. If he wins on Thursday it is because the PC base was motivated and turned out en masse in an otherwise low turnout election.

Finally, for Andrea Horwath, the expectations she and the NDP had at the start of the campaign will likely not be met. Our polling suggests they should do as well as last time in terms of votes, but that might not be enough for many of her critics, especially if the Tories form government.

Slide16

Key Findings

The Liberals have a 3-point lead over the PCs among committed eligible voters. There has been little movement in the overall numbers since last week.
Among likely voters, the Liberals and PCs are at 36% each with the NDP in third at 23%.
Liberals lead in Toronto, among those aged 30 to 44, among public sector employees, and among women.
Tories lead in Eastern Ontario and among those aged 60.
The NDP leads in the North and is tied with the PCs in Southwestern Ontario.
Kathleen Wynne has a 5-point lead over Tim Hudak on who would make the best Premier. Among likely voters Wynne leads by only 2 (Wynne 30%, Hudak 28%, Horwath 19%).
55% of eligible voters believe it is time for another party to take over, up 1 since last week. 23% believe the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, unchanged since last week.
20% of respondents said the election was about electing a government they could trust while another 20% said it was about how to deal with the economic problems facing the province.

While I do not discourage the ideas of these 20% participants, sometimes, the economic challenges that we face are due to our ignorance and not always because of the country’s economic situation or the elected representative’s lack of proper measures. Yes, so how many of you are aware of the profitable ways offered by the Bitcoin Loophole to favor your economy? If you say no, unfortunately, you are one of those ignorant people!

15% percent said it was about electing a party that would do the best job on health, education, and other public services while 16% said it was about preventing Tim Hudak from winning the election.
Slide21

Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 1,882 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from June 9 to 11, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,653 committed voters of the same is +/- 2.5 %, 19 times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Liberals lead Tories by 7; Closer race among likely voters

With just under two weeks to go in the campaign, the Liberals continue to maintain a small advantage over the PCs.  Among eligible voters, the Liberals have opened up a seven-point lead, but among those most likely to vote, the Liberals and Tories are statistically tied with the Liberals at 37% and the Tories at 35%.  The NDP has failed to gain any momentum, despite Andrea Horwath’s more aggressive strategy last week.Well, the aggressiveness of the strategy doesn’t matter because what matters really is whether the strategy is futuristic to lead the country successfully into the future! This is how you ought to choose any solution be it the financial solution or the personal solution! If you are more eager about the former then, check this futuristic Tesler App solution!

While the debate could shake up the race, deeper analysis of the poll results suggests that the Tories have little room to grow beyond its current support and there is little enthusiasm for the NDP among the key swing groups that would consider voting NDP.

committed

likelyvoters

Consider these findings: among those who would consider voting Liberal or NDP but not PC, the Liberals lead the NDP by 20-points.  More importantly, when asked how they would react to a Liberal, PC, and NDP government, these voters were more likely to be “delighted” with a Liberal win, few were delighted if the NDP won, and almost all would be dismayed if Tim Hudak was able to form a PC government.  The state of mind among these voters bodes well for the Liberals as they seek to squeeze the NDP by raising fears about a Hudak government.

electionoutcomes

The upside for the Tories is that their supporters appear to be more motivated and more likely to vote, hence the small gap between them and the Liberals among likely voters.  However,  it is clear that the first three weeks of the campaign have been won by the government, not the challenging parties. The PC campaign needs to reverse this direction in order to win – the debate carries extraordinary stakes for Mr. Hudak now.

Interest in the campaign remains remarkably low at this stage, with only 22% of eligible voters saying they are following the campaign closely and only 36% saying they have given quite a bit of thought to the campaign.

The leaders’ debate could increase interest but all signs at this stage point to another low turnout election in Ontario and a legislature that looks very similar to one at dissolution.

Key Findings

  • The Liberals have opened up a 7-point lead over the PCs with 37% for the OLP, 30% for the PCs and 24% for the NDP.
  • Among likely voters, Liberals lead by 2 over Tories (OLP 37%, PC 35%, NDP 22%).
  • Liberals continue to lead among key swing groups – including those who would consider voting Liberal or NDP and those who would consider voting PC or Liberal.
  • 32% of eligible voters think the Liberals will win while 22% think the PCs will win.  Four in ten (39%) are unsure who will win the provincial election.
  • We also asked respondents to tell us how they would feel if each of the main parties formed a government.
  • Eligible voters were more likely to be “dismayed” if Mr. Hudak and the PCs formed a government (44%) while 36% would be dismayed if the Ontario Liberals formed a government.  Respondents were less likely to be dismayed at the prospect of an NDP government led by Ms. Horwath (31%) and were more likely to say  they wouldn’t mind an NDP government.
  • Interest in the campaign has not changed since the previous week of polling.

Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 1,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from May 28 to 31, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.  The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 875 committed voters of the same is +/- 3.4 %, 19 times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Ontario Liberals lead Tories by Two

As the Ontario election campaign enters its second half, no party has a clear lead in vote intention.  The Liberals have a small lead among all eligible voters and among those most likely to vote, they have leaped ahead of the PCs and now lead by three points. The NDP remains competitive but still well back in third place.

The Liberals continue to do well in Toronto but the race is very tight in the vote and seat rich region around Toronto.  The Liberals and Tories are deadlock at 33% in the GTA region with the NDP not far back at 25%.

vote1_2

Despite the fact that the advertising ban was lifted on Wednesday May 21, interest in the campaign has not increased since the previous week of polling. Moreover, 60% of eligible voters still report not being contacted by any party or campaign.

At this stage of the campaign, survey data indicates that the Liberal and PC campaigns have been most active province-wide however respondents living in NDP held ridings were more likely to report being contacted by the NDP; a sign that the NDP is concentrating on the ridings it currently holds as well as a handful of ridings it thinks it can win.

Despite the Liberal lead, only 24% of eligible voters believe the Liberals and Kathleen Wynne deserve to be re-elected.  51% think it is time for another party to take over while 25% say they are unsure.  This group of “unsure about change” voters is the key to understanding how the election campaign may ultimately turn out.

Right now, the Liberals lead among these “unsure about change” voters (OLP 26%, NDP 16%, PC 12%) but 39% are still undecided about how they will vote.

vote4_2

While many will likely not turn out to vote, the Liberal lead is built around these voters not shifting their opinion on “time for a change.”  If a large portion of these voters shift their preferences or do not turn out to vote due to a lack of motivation, it will be very difficult for the Liberals to win.

None of the challenging parties seem to be gathering momentum so far in the campaign.  If the mood for change is going to grow and firm up, neither Hudak or Horwath are making that happen so far.  This may change if more voters start paying more attention to the election.  Wynne may not being moving forward but she is at the very least holding her own, against a mood for change.

These voters are the most important target for the NDP as it seeks to expand beyond the 25% support it has because these voters are not intense in their desire for change but are not convinced the Liberals deserve another term in office.

Key Findings

  • There has been little movement in vote intention in the past week.
  • Liberals have a small two-point lead among committed eligible voters (OLP 34%, PC 32%, NDP 25%). 15% of eligible voters are undecided.
  • Liberals lead among likely voters (OLP 36%, PC 33%, NDP 24%).
  • 51% of eligible voters think it is time for another party to take over.  24% believe the Liberals deserve to be re-elected.  25% are unsure.
  • Among those unsure about whether it is time for a change, the Liberals lead by 10-points over the NDP.
  • Liberals lead in Toronto and Eastern Ontario (area codes starting with K). PCs ahead in southwestern Ontario. OLP and PCs tied in Greater Toronto Area (postal code starts with L)
  • NDP tied with Liberals in the North.
  • Tories lead among those aged 60 and over, men, and those living in rural communities.
  • 60% of eligible voters report not being contacted by a party or a campaign.  24% report being contacted by Liberals, 22% by the PCs, and 14% by the NDP.
  • Interest in the campaign has not change since the previous week of polling.

vote3_2vote2_2

Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 1,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from May 21 to 24, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.  The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 864 committed voters of the same is +/- 3.4 %, 19 times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Ontario Election Roundup: Unpredictability is the Word

The opening round of this Ontario election battle has been well worth watching. Anyone who says they know how this election will turn out is truly only guessing, as I see it, because many voters have not yet turned their attention to the choices on offer.

If it’s too early to tell how things will end up, it’s not too early to talk about what’s happened so far and how some of the positions taken and campaign messages might influence voters. Here are a few things that have struck me so far.

In our polling, it’s clear that many voters think the economy is under performing. While this is usually a pretty good indicator of a desire for change, it’s critical to understand the psychology of how voters think about politicians and the economy. It’s far from a binary situation – there’s more nuance than one might think.

When the economy is terrible, voters think almost anything would be better, and this is usually when change happens electorally. However, when people think the economy is weak (but not terrible) we can often see different, more tentative instincts. Voters want the economy to get better, but for those who are employed and able to pay their bills, there’s also some fear that it could get worse, with the wrong measures.While it is certainly important to choose the right leader who could stabilize the economic situation of the country, you can also do your own share by choosing the effective measures like the Ethereum Code, an automated cryptocurrency investment platform to boost your own economy! This measure has also been favored by many real users, which means your success is assured! So, more about the elections!

This is the context in which Tim Hudak’s Million Jobs Plan has landed. The challenge he’s facing is that his formula may sound great to the most conservative voters, but a leap of faith for others. To some ears, it may sound like harsh medicine, the kind of thing that feels like it could produce hard times rather than good times.

Anyone who says they know how this election will turn out is truly only guessing, as I see it, because many voters have not yet turned their attention to the choices on offer.
Anyone who says they know how this election will turn out is truly only guessing, as I see it, because many voters have not yet turned their attention to the choices on offer.

Uncertain voters may want to believe in the Million Jobs upside, but they don’t know if that’s more than a slogan, and haven’t yet developed a sense of confidence in Mr. Hudak’s economic judgment. Moreover, while they don’t know they can truly count on the million new jobs, they are sure they can count on the 100,000 job cuts he’s promising.

For some voters, Mr. Hudak’s plan is an encouraging signal of more fiscal discipline and a promise of better times to come. For others, it sounds like mass layoffs, longer hospital wait times, bigger class sizes and fewer consumers with money to spend. Polling so far suggests that if this election was tomorrow and it turned on his economic plan, he just might fall short of a victory once again – so his work is cut out for him.

Kathleen Wynne main effort so far is about ensuring this election is about anything but Dalton McGuinty and his last years in office. Liberal ads profile Wynne, far more than the party, and this has paid off somewhat. A remarkable number of voters already see her as an improvement over her predecessor (40%), despite the fact that the economy has not noticeably improved in the year or so that she has been Premier. If she is allowed to not run on the Liberal record she will jump at the chance. To date, her opponents have mostly given her that gift.

For the NDP, there seem to be big challenges to overcome. First, there are plenty of progressive voters in Ontario, but only about 1 in 5 who might consider themselves left wing. The party, not unlike the Conservatives, has to motivate a leftist base and at the same time reassure those in the middle of the spectrum that an NDP change would not be too radical. Doing this requires great communications skills and a handful of marquis policies that show how to bridge these perspectives. So far, there’s little evidence that the NDP has been getting this job done.

Bottom line? There’s plenty of time left for opinion to form, and even re-form. Leaders have had a chance to work out kinks in their campaigns and road test their messages. This is the period of time when the campaign teams need to be able to be clear eyed about how they are doing and concentrate on what they might need to do differently, to be more effective. The race ahead looks interesting, to say the least.

Bruce Anderson is the chairman of polling firm Abacus Data and a founding partner of i2 Ideas and Issues Advertising.

Download all our releases from the week

1. Ontario Liberals and PCs tied at 33%

2. Wynne ahead as best Premier

3. Top Election Issues: Jobs and the Economy

Wynne ahead as “Best Premier” but Horwath has least negative impressions.

pdf-icon-transparent-background2

Download report here

Yesterday, we reported that the Liberals and PCs are tied among committed eligible voters while the PCs have a slight lead among likely voters.  Today, we focus on leadership and how Ontarians view the three individuals vying to be the next Premier.

While NDP Leader Andrea Horwath has the more favourable personal numbers (or the least negative), Kathleen Wynne has the advantage on who would make the best Premier.  This, despite the fact, that the Tories lead the Liberals in vote intention among likely voters.

Leadership1

Our results indicate that Kathleen Wynne is likely having a positive impact on Liberal fortunes so far.  Her numbers are not  significantly weaker than Andrea Horwath’s and are more positive than Tim Hudak’s.    She’s perceived to be different and a better Premier than her predecessor Dalton McGuinty by a plurality of eligible voters.  More importantly, she’s liked more than the other leaders by voters in the key swing groups we have reported on.Well, it is true that people notice and appreciate someone who is different, in a positive way, from others! The same is the case when people trying to find a suitable financial solution, where they get easily attracted by different aka unconventional means like the Crypto VIP Club than the conventional complicated measures that are prevalent!

Leadership2

Wynne also has a more or equally positive brand image than her competitors.  She more likely to be seen as a capable leader and despite all the challenges she’s faced dealing with the gas plants issue, as many voters consider her to be “more honest than most politicians” as they do of Horwath or Hudak.

Leadership3

The challenges for Tim Hudak persist over his personal image.  The first days of the campaign have not improved his image.  Only 22% of the electorate has a positive impression of him and he trails Wynne on best Premier.  The biggest challenge for Hudak is convincing the OLP/PC swing voters that he would be a better premier than Wynne.  Right now, only 17% consider him to be the best choice for Premier but with 47% of those voters “unsure”, there is still plenty of time to shift perceptions.

Key Findings

  • Andrea Horwath has the best leadership evaluation among eligible voters.  Her net impression is +8, compared with -9 for Kathleen Wynne and -20 for Tim Hudak.
  • Kathleen Wynne leads by six on “Best Premier” among eligible voters.  Wynne 26%, Hudak 20%, Horwath 18%, Unsure 35%.
  • Wynne leads as best Premier among all age groups except for those aged 60 and over.  Among the oldest group of voters, Hudak has a marginal two-point lead over Wynne.
  • Compared to Dalton McGuinty, 40% of eligible voters consider Kathleen Wynne to be a better Premier, 34% consider her neither better nor worse, and 12% consider her to be worse.
  • Despite the challenges faced by the Ontario Liberals, Kathleen Wynne’s personal brand is relatively strong.  She is the leader most likely seen as a capable leader and she is tied with Andrea Horwath when it comes to being “down to earth” and “understanding the problems facing Ontario”.  Most noteworthy, she is tied with Horwath on being “more honest than most politicians.”
  • Among the OLP/NDP swing group (representing about 20% of the electorate), Wynne has a commanding 18-point lead over Andrea Horwath on which leader would make the best Premier.  Wynne was selected by 43% of voters in this group compared with 25% who selected Horwath.  Thirty percent were undecided.

Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 2,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from May 14 to 16, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.  The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,672 committed voters of the same is +/- 2.4 %, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

Ontario Liberals and PCs tied at 33%

Abacus Data and the Sun News Network are tracking every twist and turn during the 2014 Ontario provincial election.  Talking about the elections, every election is important, as it decides the country’s current and the future situation, including the economic situation. While it is important to choose the right leader who could create better economic plans for the country, depending upon it entirely for your favorable financial situation when reliable means like the Bitcoin Code are available, is absurd!

Each week, starting May 14, Abacus Data will conduct a representative survey of eligible voters in Ontario.  Results will be released the following week on The Battleground with David Akin at 5 pm ET and in Sun Media papers across Ontario.

Liberals and PCs tied at 33% among eligible voters.  PCs have a three point lead among likely voters. OntarioElection_BallotAs the campaign entered the second official week of the campaign, the Ontario Liberals and Progressive Conservatives were tied with 33% support respectively.  The NDP was in third with 26% support.

Among those most likely to vote however, the Tories lead by three. Regionally, with the Liberals ahead in metro Toronto and weak in southwestern Ontario, who wins the most seats will likely be determined by voters in the communities surrounding Toronto.  Right now, the Tories have a slight advantage but there are still many voters who would only consider the Liberals or Tories who are still undecided in the vote and seat rich region of the province.

The Liberals are competitive because they have been able to maintain support among progressive voters who are considering both the Liberals or NDP and among more conservative or free enterprise voters who are considering voting either Liberal or PC.

For the Tories to pull well ahead, they have to convince far more of those who would consider PC or Liberal to support the Tories while hoping that the NDP can siphon away more swing progressives from the left.

The Liberals have a few paths to victory but the most likely is one that persuades OLP/NDP swing voters to back the Liberals to prevent a Hudak win.

For the NDP, they need to remind progressives of the mistakes of Liberal past while doing all they can to downplay the threat that Tim Hudak plays to the same voters.  If the NDP is not seen as the alternative to the Tories, strategic voting may prevent the NDP from growing beyond its 2011 support levels.

OntarioElection_Ballot2

Main Findings

  • Liberals and PCs tied among committed eligible voters (OLP 33%, PC 33%, NDP 26%)..
  • PCs have a small lead over the OLP among committed likely voters (PC 36%, OLP 33%, NDP 25%).
  • 14% of eligible voters are undecided.
  • Liberals lead in Toronto and Eastern Ontario (area codes starting with K).
  • PCs ahead in southwestern Ontario and slightly ahead in region surrounding Toronto (area codes starting with L).
  • NDP ahead in the North (postal codes starting with P).
  • Tories lead among those aged 60 and over, men, and those living in rural communities.
  • Liberals lead among 30 to 44 year olds and women.
  • NDP does best among those aged 18 to 29.
  • Voters more likely to have been contacted by OLP or PC campaigns than NDP campaign.
  • 71% of eligible voters have not been contacted by a campaign yet.

Methodology The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 2,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from May 14 to 16, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.  The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,672 committed voters of the same is +/- 2.4 %, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

What Canadians Think about the Fair Elections Act

pdf-icon-transparent-background2

18% THINK CANADIAN ELECTIONS ARE UNFAIR
60% THINK FAIR ELECTIONS ACT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON ELECTIONS

A new national survey (March 19 to 23, 2014) shows that 18% of Canadians think elections in this country have been unfair, while more than twice as many think they have been fair (48%).  Among Conservative Party voters, 12% think Canadian elections are unfair.

Slide1

When asked if the rules that govern Canadian elections have “been working well or not” 43% say they have been working well, compared to 29% who say they have not been working well.  Among Conservative voters 54% say the rules have been working well, more than twice as many as say they opposite (21%).

Slide2

When asked if the proposed Fair Elections Act will change things for the better or for the worse, opinions are split, and uncertain.  Nineteen percent expect things to change for the better, 21% expect things to change for the worse, but the majority expect the Act will have no real effect.

Slide3

Finally, when asked whether the Fair Elections Act would improve election fairness, the results reflect mixed opinion and some indifference.  Eighteen percent (18%) expect more fairness, 23% less fairness, and 59% expect no impact.  While 2011 Conservative Party voters are more supportive of the bill, only 24% expect it to result in fairer elections, compared to 16% who expect less fair elections, and 60% no impact.

Slide4

Bruce Anderson comment:

“This bill has been controversial within the House of Commons and has generated criticism from many political scientists and editorialists.  To date, the public seems neither enthusiastic about the bill nor hostile towards it.

For the political capital the government is investing in the FEA, there is little apparent appreciation for the policy, even among the party’s base supporters.  At the same time, for the effort expended by opposition parties, so far, there is also little to show.  Most people don’t seem to feel this initiative was needed, and few think it will make much of a difference in how elections are conducted in Canada.”

David Coletto comment:

If you used the newspaper editorial pages or the #cdnpoli twitter feed as a barometer for public opinion you would think that Canadians are upset about the Fair Elections Act.  But that’s not the case.

Most Canadians don’t think there’s much wrong with how we conduct elections and they don’t think they the Fair Elections Act will do much to make them fairer.  Basically, the average Canadian’s assessment of the Fair Elections Act is that we have an ineffective bill that will solve a problem they don’t think exists.”

Download detailed tables

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted online with 1,164 respondents. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from March 19 to 23, 2014

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.0%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806 or Bruce Anderson at banderson@abacusdata.ca.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

Abacus Data is an innovative, fast growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research based advice to our clients.  We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

Free Trade and the Canadian Economy

The federal Conservatives have staked a lot of their reputation for sound economic stewardship on their determination to forge more trade ties with the rest of the world.  A new Abacus poll shows this agenda has a fair bit of public appeal.

Slide1

Canada-Korea Trade Agreement

By a healthy margin of 41% to 28% Canadians believe the new trade deal with Korea will be good rather than bad for the economy.  While voters in the west are most convinced of the merits, the plurality of voters in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada, are all more likely to see upside than downside.

Slide2

This is one idea that can do more than just rally the Conservative base.  60% of Conservative voters see benefits, compared to only 19% who see downsides.  But Liberal voters are 41% optimistic and 27% pessimistic.  Even NDP voters are split with equal numbers saying this will be good for the economy (31%) as bad (32%)

Slide3

Canada-Europe Trade Agreement

Opinion is even more positive about the prospects of economic gains from the agreement negotiated with the EU.  Across the country, 58% expect it will be good rather than damaging (15%) to the economy.

Enthusiasm is pretty high across the country.  Support is least strong in Atlantic Canada, but even there 50% foresee benefits, while only 15% anticipate downsides.

Slide4

Support for CETA cuts across partisan lines.  While the split among Conservatives is 78% positive-10% negative, it is pretty strong among Liberal voters (56%-15%) and even among NDP voters (53%-21%).

Analysis by Bruce Anderson:

“Canadian public opinion on trade liberalization has evolved a lot since the 1988 election on the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement.  More and more Canadians have come to believe that the country can and in fact must succeed in a global marketplace and that trade agreements, far from having wrecked the Canadian economy, have provided it with more opportunities for success. What majority of these Canadians believe in is only true, as, since long, the trading has proved to boost the economy! Not only the economy of the country but, also, the economy of the individuals when they choose to embrace the trading procedure! Especially the recent popular cryptocurrency trading procedure, after understanding the basics to succeed in it!

While these debates can still be contentious, the burden of proof has clearly shifted: these days opponents need to make a more compelling case if they want to want the public to stand in the way of these deals.”

Analysis by David Coletto:

The trade deals being concluded by the Harper Government have broad support across the country.  A plurality of Canadians think the South Korean deal will be good for the Canadian economy and a majority believe the EU trade deal will have a positive impact on the economy.  While Ontarians seem to be more cautious and less optimistic about the South Korean deal but there is broad support west of Ontario.

Politically for the Harper Government, these trade deals are wins-wins: they are popular with the party’s base as well as with swing voters and those who would consider voting Liberal or Conservative.  Only the NDP faces a tough choice on the South Korea deal as half of its supporters favour it while half are opposed.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted online with 1,164 respondents. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from March 19 to 23, 2014

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.0%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806 or Bruce Anderson at banderson@abacusdata.ca.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

Abacus Data is an innovative, fast growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research based advice to our clients.  We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

Opinion Soft and Split on Income Splitting

There’s been much debate in Conservative circles about the merits of allowing income splitting as a way for some Canadians to see their tax burden reduced.

But what do Canadians know about and think about this idea?  Abacus Data asked some questions to size up current public opinion.

Who expects to benefit and by how much?

Off the top, only 16% think they will personally benefit significantly if tax policy is changed along the lines promised by the Conservatives in the last campaign. Another 24% see a “small benefit”, while the rest are unsure (9%) or expect to see no benefit (52%).

More likely to expect a significant benefit are those with incomes above $75,000 (23%) those in the 30-44 age bracket (23%) and parents of children under 15 (32%).

Support or Oppose Income Splitting?

A modest (57%) majority supports this idea, while 22% oppose it, and 20% are on the fence.  Support is higher than average in Ontario (62%) and Atlantic Canada (64%) and below average in Quebec (48%).

Support is 65% among Conservative Party supporters, 54% among Liberals and 55% among NDP supporters.  It is highest among parents of children under 15 (69%).

Is it one of the Better Ideas?

While few oppose the idea, when asked whether this is “one of the better ideas” for the government to consider “once a budget surplus is reached”, enthusiasm is more muted.  Given this context and question, 42% consider it one of the better ideas, 29% say it is not, and 30% are unsure.  Even among Conservative Party supporters, and parents, only 51% say it is one of the better choices that could be made.

Bitcoin Trader is a crypto robot which manages to successfully mine for different crypto exchanges, acquiring users a solid sum of €13,000 daily profits. It was launched a couple of months ago and is created by a group of professional Forex and high-frequency traders who decided that they wanted to explore new market horizons and opportunities. This team was led by MrLenny Hyde and his response for this trading robot was priceless. When asked about its worth and the success rate, he answered ‘Go and experience it for yourself. It is surely going to surprise you and fill both your heart and pocket’. His confidence itself portrays the value of this Bitcoin Trader Crypto robot.

 

Users are generally satisfied by the crypto mining tool’s performance, stating in their user testimonials and trading reviews that its 99.4% success rate remains unmatched by other scrypt mining solutions.

How about other choices for $2.7 billion?

Given a choice of three alternative ways of using the estimated $2.7 billion price tag for income splitting, only 23% prefer income splitting, 35% would rather see the money spent on priority programs and 41% would rather see the money used to pay down federal debt.

Among Conservative Party voters, twice as many would prefer to see debt paid down (50%) as would choose to go ahead with the income splitting tax change (26%).  Liberal (17%) and NDP (21%) supporters show less interest in income splitting: both are more likely to select spending or debt reduction.  Among parents with children under 15, 32% would choose income splitting, 35% spending on priorities, and 34% debt reduction.

Are Conservatives obliged to follow through with campaign commitment?

When reminded that the Conservatives had promised income splitting in 2011 and asked if that meant the government “must go ahead with this idea and keep their promise” or “choose whichever course they thing makes sense today”, opinion was evenly split: 41% said keep the promise, 42% choose what makes sense in today’s context.

Among those who voted Conservative in 2011, 46% say keep the promise, while 45% think flexibility is in order.  Among parents with kids under 15, 47% feel the government is obliged to keep the promise.

What about those who think they will benefit the most from income splitting?

Worth noting, is that among the 16% of Canadians who believe income splitting would be a significant benefit for them, only a bare majority (56%) would choose income splitting over the other $2.7 billion policy options offered. And  28% of them believe the government should choose whichever course they think makes most sense, rather than feel bound by their campaign promise.

Our Take

Bruce Anderson, Chairman of Abacus Data comments: 

“Since few people expect a significant personal benefit from income splitting, the Conservatives would face limited backlash if they choose to move away from this idea. 

Even though people naturally prefer lower taxes, not all that many seem terribly enthusiastic about this idea, especially when presented with some alternatives.  Reducing debt by $2.7 billion doesn’t have much of an excitement factor, yet twice as many seem to prefer it to this tax cut.

While marketing could stimulate more demand, these numbers may give pause to those Conservatives arguing the political necessity or upside of going ahead with this promise, and add fuel to the arguments of those who have been wondering about the merits of this move.”

David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data comments: 

“Although income splitting was a central tenant of the Conservative Party’s 2011 election platform, our data suggests the proposal is not an immediate winner with most Canadians or even a majority of those who voted Conservative 2011.

On the surface, most Canadians support the idea of income splitting, even when most of those who support it do not think they will immediately benefit from it.  But when presented with some alternatives, income splitting falls to third place behind more spending on priority areas or reducing public debt.

Parents with young children, both men and women, are most receptive to the proposal because they are most likely to benefit from it.  But even among this group, there’s no consensus that income splitting is the best way to spend $2.7 billion. 

The data does not offer a clear path for the Conservatives because the political price for not delivering on the campaign promise is muddled.  About half want the Conservatives to keep their pledge while half think it’s acceptable to change course if it makes sense to do so.  And it’s not even a sure winner among the party’s base, many of whom are older and have already benefited from pension income splitting. 

If the Conservatives keep their promise they give the opposition parties an opportunity to offer tax breaks or spending ideas that might excite more voters.  If they break their promise they risk upsetting some caucus members and party supporters who believe they should honour their campaign promises. “

Download detailed tables of the results

Methodology

The survey was conducted online with 1,249 respondents by Abacus Data. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or Bruce Anderson at banderson@abacusdata.ca

About Abacus Data

Abacus Data is an innovative, fast growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research based advice to our clients.  We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/