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Top Election Issues: Jobs and the Economy

In the early days of the 2014 Ontario election, the issues of jobs and the economy are playing a central role in the parties’ messaging and platforms but also the perceptions of the electorate.

Almost six in ten Ontarians rate the current state of the economy as poor or very poor, with higher levels of pessimism in the southwest and northern regions of the province. Where pessimism about the economy is higher, support for the Ontario Liberals is lower. There is a strong relationship between the two variables.

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That being said, although the Tories have made the economy the central focus of their campaign, voters who identified the economy as their top issue are more likely to identify the Liberal Party as best able to handle the issue. The Tories have successfully set the issue agenda but have not yet convinced enough voters that their plan is superior to either the NDP’s or the Liberal Party’s.

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If the Tories or NDP are going to push the change narrative further, they have to increase the public’s concern about the economic situation in the province. Many Ontarians are not seeing the economic gloom that Tim Hudak is describing. However, where voters are more cognizant of the economic challenges facing their communities, the Liberals are weakest – see SW and Northern Ontario.

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In other words, if Ontarians are going to be convinced that the province needs the “medicine” the Tories are prescribing, they have to agree on the diagnosis. Right now, that does not seem to be the case.

These perceptions may change as voters pay more attention to the campaign and the parties ramp up their advertising and outreach. But right now, the Liberals and Tories are deadlocked in voter intentions partly because there’s no consensus among the electorate about the state of Ontario’s economy.

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Key Findings

Jobs and the economy are the top issue for one in three eligible voters in Ontario (33%).
Honesty and accountability in government (14%), provincial deficit and debt (10%), health care (9%) and electricity prices (7%) round out the top 5 issues.
PC core voters are more likely to identify debt, deficits and accountability as their top issue, while OLP core voters are most likely to identify jobs and the economy.
For the third of eligible voters who selected jobs and the economy as their top issue, a plurality picked the Liberals as best able to manage the issue, followed by the Tories (26%) and the NDP (21%).
Ontarians are split in their evaluations of the provincial economy. Four in ten eligible voters rate the current provincial economy as very good or good while 58% rate it as poor or very poor.
Residents of SW Ontario (postal code R) are most likely to be pessimistic about the Ontario economy.
42% of eligible voters believe their electricity prices have increased a lot in the past year.
None of the major parties or leaders have a significant advantage on economic management competence.
More than half of eligible voters in Ontario said they were unfamiliar with the provincial budget released on May 1.
When asked whether they approved or disapproved of the document, 21% of eligible voters said they approved while 29% disapproved.
Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 2,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from May 14 to 16, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,672 committed voters of the same is +/- 2.4 %, 19 times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

The Million Jobs Math puts the Hudak campaign at a Crossroads

To his credit, Tim Hudak designed his campaign to do what most of the modern political strategy textbooks tell you to do: remember that elections are usually about the economy.Yes, only when the economic situation of the country is good, better international collaborations happen that lead to the further development and recognition of the country, globally! But, for your personal financial upliftment, you can any day rely on the Bitcoin Loophole, instead of waiting for the economic reforms to happen! Ok, so more about Tim Hudak’s campaign!

But it isn’t always that simple.

First, perceptions of the economy aren’t great, but they aren’t bad enough to make it a foregone conclusion that the Liberals were going to be tossed. Here’s some of the math:

12% of Ontarians say the economy is performing “very poorly”. Of this group 3 out of 4 say the Wynne government is doing a lousy job. (That’s 8% of voters)
Another 44% say the state of the economy is “poor”. Among these folks, half rate the government poorly. (Another 22% of voters)
Taken together, this suggests the total number of voters who are unhappy at the state of the economy and blame Premier Wynne is roughly 30%.

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The risk for the Progressive Conservatives, heading into this week’s debate is that the campaign is turning into a test of confidence in Mr. Hudak and his economic ideas.

That’s not the kind of number that easily sweeps incumbents out of office, and it reflects the fact that for many people in the province, the wolf doesn’t seem to be on the doorstep.

Let’s slice into a few more numbers from our last poll.

Of all of those who think the economy is in poor or very poor (56%) shape, about 60% think it’s time for another party to take over. That gives you about 34%.

No matter how you slice it, there’s nothing in these numbers that would make the case for the Progressive Conservatives to centre their campaign around a better jobs program.

And that’s before you consider that of the 34% who want a change in economic direction, many had doubts about Tim Hudak, even before events of this week.

Among those who say the economy is poor, half (48%) say Tim Hudak would do a poor job as an economic manager.
Among those who say the economy is “very poor” 61% think Hudak would do a bad job.
In other words, fewer than half of those who want a change in economic direction were confident that Hudak was the change they want.

An obvious first conclusion? The Progressive Conservatives might have been better advised to campaign for change based on corruption, wasteful management and the deep fiscal hole the Liberals have dug.

But once they decided to base their campaign on a superior plan for job growth, they couldn’t afford but have a promising, highly credible, and defensible plan. That’s why this week’s revelations about the Million Jobs math are so important.

The risk for the Progressive Conservatives, heading into this week’s debate is that the campaign is turning into a test of confidence in Mr. Hudak and his economic ideas.

Even without the brutally apparent errors in the job calculations, that would have been a tough campaign to win. To have a hope of victory he must either turn the campaign focus back towards the issues that made more voters angry enough to want change, or somehow rebuild confidence in his own economic judgment, or both. It’s a tall order.

Survey Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 1,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from May 21 to 24, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 864 committed voters of the same is +/- 3.4 %, 19 times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data

Abacus Data is an innovative, fast growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.

For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

Paul Davis favourite for PC Leadership; 53% of NL has positive impression of NL Leader Dwight Ball

According to a new VOCM-Abacus Data random telephone survey of 600 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador conducted from July 28 to August 1, PC leadership candidate former Health Minister Paul Davis has the most positive personal rating of the three candidates running to become the next leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Davis also leads in a three-way hypothetical match-up among all respondents and among those who voted PC in the 2011 provincial election. Davis leads former Municipal Affairs Minister Steve Kent by seven-points among all respondents and by 14-points among those respondents who said they voted PC in 2011. Former MHA and cabinet minister John Ottenheimer places third with both groups, trailing Davis by 13-points among all respondents and 16-points among those who voted PC in 2011.

When presented with provincial ballots with each of the leadership candidates named as PC leader, the Liberal Party and its leader Dwight Ball lead on all three, although a PC Party with Davis as leader performs slightly better than when voting preference is tested with Kent or Ottenheimer as PC Leader.

Overall Impressions: Davis +35, Kent +21, Ottenheimer +20 vs. Dwight Ball +41, Lorraine Michael +3

Respondents were asked how they feel about the three candidates running for PC Leader as well as the two other political party leaders in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Overall, respondents were more likely to have a positive impression of former Health Minister Paul Davis than either of his two rivals, although all three candidates had net positive ratings. Forty-six percent of respondents had a positive impression of Davis compared with 11% who had a negative impression. His net rating was +35, 14-points higher than Steve Kent and 15-points higher than John Ottenheimer.

However, none of the three leadership candidates had more favourable impressions than Liberal Leader Dwight Ball whose net positive rating was +41. Overall, 53% of survey respondents had a positive impression of Dwight Ball while 12% had a negative impression of him. NDP Leader Lorraine Michael’s ratings were more mixed with 33% saying they have a favourable impression of her compared with 30% who have a negative impression.

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When we drill down and focus only on those respondents who said they voted PC in the 2011 provincial election, Paul Davis’ advantage over his leadership rivals increases. Davis’ personal rating among PC voters is +48 with 58% having a positive impression compared with 10% who have a negative impression. Both Steve Kent (+31) and John Ottenheimer (+22) are in positive territory, but trail Davis by wide margins.

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The NL Liberal Party’s lead on the ballot (which we released yesterday) is likely driven by the fact that a plurality of former PC voters have a positive impression of Liberal Leader Dwight Ball. Among PC voters in 2011, 44% said they have a positive impression of the Liberal Leader compared with 19% who have a negative impression giving Ball a net rating of +25, higher than PC leadership candidate John Ottenheimer (+21).

NDP Leader Lorraine Michael’s net rating among PC voters is -19 with 24% saying they have a positive impression of her compared with 43% who view her negatively.

The PC Leadership Race

Respondents were then asked to select which of the three PC leadership candidates would be their first choice if they were personally voting to select the next leader. Among all respondents, Paul Davis had a seven-point lead over Steve Kent and a 13-point lead over John Ottenheimer. Davis was the choice of one in three respondents (34%) followed by Kent at 27% and Ottenheimer at 21%. Eighteen percent of respondents were undecided.

Slide4

Among those who voted PC in 2011, Davis’ lead increases to 14-points over Kent with 40% selecting the former Health Minister as their first choice. Kent was selected by 26% of former PC voters followed closely by John Ottenheimer at 24%. Ten percent of PC voters were undecided.

And finally, among those voters who said they always vote PC in provincial elections, Davis was selected by 41% compared with 32% who selected Steve Kent. John Ottenheimer was well back in third with 21% among core PC Party supporters.

Hypothetical Provincial Ballots with Three PC Leadership Candidates

Finally, voters were presented with three hypothetical provincial ballots in which the names of the three PC leadership candidate were rotated and the names of the other party leaders were mentioned. Respondents were asked which party they would support if a provincial election was held at the time of the survey.

None of the three PC leadership candidates were able to overtake the Liberal lead among committed voters but Paul Davis performed best in the hypothetical match-ups.

Slide5

With Davis as leader, the Liberals lead the Tories by 8-points, with the Liberals at 46%, the PCs at 38% and the NDP at 16% among committed voters. With Kent as leader, the Liberal lead grows to 13-points, with the Liberals at 48%, the PCs at 35%, and the NDP at 16%. If John Ottenheimer is named as PC leader, 49% of committed voters said they would vote Liberal compared with 34% for the PCs and 17% for the NDP.

Slide6

Analysis from Abacus CEO, David Coletto

As PC Party members across Newfoundland and Labrador meet to elect delegates to the Leadership Convention to be held September 12 and 13, former Health Minister Paul Davis is the preferred choice among all eligible voters and among those who voted PC in 2011. Davis’ personal rating is highest and rivals that of popular Liberal Leader Dwight Ball. While none of the three leadership candidates push the PC Party ahead of the Liberals in hypothetical ballots, Davis does perform best, albeit only slightly better than Steve Kent or John Ottenheimer.

Whoever the Tories elect on September 13 as their next leader and Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, the road to re-election in 2015 will be a tough one. They face a very popular Liberal Leader and the effects of three terms in government.

Based on our polling, Paul Davis seems to be the favourite and best hope for the party at this point. But the goodwill the public has for him personally needs to be translated into support for the party.

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey commissioned by VOCM was conducted with 600 eligible voters living in Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey was completed from July 28 to August 1, 2014.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 500 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of Newfoundland and Labrador. The tables within this report detail the weighted and unweighted counts for the sample.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA:

Abacus Data is an innovative, fast growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/

Wynne still ahead as “Best Premier” but unsure up on measure

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Download full report

Yesterday, we reported that the Liberals hold a small lead over the Tories but that little has changed in voting intentions in the past week of the campaign.  While a majority of eligible voters in Ontario want change and only 24% think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, a large portion are not yet ready to pass judgment on the Wynne government.

The stable horse race numbers mirror perceptions about the political party leaders. While NDP Leader Andrea Horwath continues to have the most favourable personal numbers (or the least negative), Kathleen Wynne continues to have a small advantage on who would make the best Premier.  Although, the percentage of undecided respondents on the best premier question has increased to 41%.

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There is little evidence in our data that Horwath’s shift to the centre, which has angered a number of NDP activists, has hurt her reputation with much of the NDP’s voting base.  Among those in the NDP core, 72% have a positive impression of the NDP Leader, a number comparable or stronger than the equivalent for Kathleen Wynne or Tim Hudak among their core supporters.

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The results continue to suggest that many eligible voters have still not paid much attention to the campaign or are not satisfied with the choices on offer. Talking about the choices, not every time, we are offered the suitable ones but, when offered, it is only sensible to catch hold of it for the purpose of our betterment! One such better choices to favor your financial situation is the Crypto CFD Trader, which you should appropriately utilize for your financial betterment! Now, more about the election!

With a high percentage saying they are unsure which leader would make the best Premier, the opportunity for a big shift in vote intention is still possible.

Andrea Horwath still has the best opportunity going forward to capitalize on the fluidity of the electorate as fewer voters have a negative impression of her.  If she performs well in debate in Northern Ontario and in the leaders’ debate on June 3, voters may be receptive to her message.

Key Findings

  • Andrea Horwath continues to have the best leadership evaluation among eligible voters.  Her net impression is +10, compared with  -6 for Kathleen Wynne and -21 for Tim Hudak.
  • Kathleen Wynne leads by three on “Best Premier” among eligible voters but the percentage of eligible voters saying they are unsure is up from last week:  Wynne 23%, Hudak 20%, Horwath 16%, Unsure 41%.
  • Wynne leads as best Premier among all age groups except for those aged 60 and over.  Among the oldest group of voters, Hudak has a four-point lead over Wynne.
  • •While prominent NDP members and supporters may have expressed frustration with the NDP, there doesn’t seem to be much hostility among the broader NDP base.  Among the core NDP support group, 72% have a positive impression of Andrea Horwath compared to 2% who have a negative impression.
  • When it comes to who would make the best Premier, Wynne leads her competitors in two key swing groups – those who would consider voting PC and Liberal (Wynne 30% vs. Hudak 16%) and those who would consider voting Liberal and NDP (Wynne 39% vs. Horwath 19%).
  • Sixty seven percent of those in the “swing” group (would consider voting for all three parties) are unsure who would make the best Premier.

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Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 1,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from May 21 to 24, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.  The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 864 committed voters of the same is +/- 3.4 %, 19 times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

– See more at: http://web.archive.org/web/20140810153647/http://abacusinsider.com/ontario-election-2/wynne-best-premier-voters-increasingly-unsure-choices-premier/#sthash.15QZzqHm.dpuf

Federal Politics: Liberals lead Tories by 3

A new national survey (June 25 to July 3, 2014) shows the federal Liberal Party with a 3-point lead among committed voters, at 34% followed by the Conservatives at 31% and the NDP at 23%. Among all eligible voters 28% said they would vote Liberal, 25% Conservative, 19% NDP and 19% are undecided. Since March, Liberal support is unchanged while the Tories are up three and the BQ is down three.

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Three Way Race in BC, Liberals ahead in Quebec

This survey oversampled respondents in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec allowing us to make more confident assessments of regional voting intentions. In British Columbia, the three main parties are locked in a close three-way race with the Conservatives at 32% among committed voters and the NDP and Liberals tied for second at 28%.

In Ontario, the Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied with the Liberals at 36% and the Conservatives at 34%. The NDP is well back in third at 22%.

In Quebec, the Liberals have a 12-point lead over the NDP with the Liberals at 36%, the NDP at 24% and the BQ at 19%. The Conservative Party remains in fourth place in Quebec at 17% of committed voter support.

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Liberals lead among women and those aged 30 to 44. Tories lead among those aged 60 and over.

The Liberals have a six-point lead over the Tories among women (35% to 29%) while the two parties are tied among male voters (Liberals 34%, Tories 33%). Among different age groups, the Tories lead by six among those aged 60 and over while the Liberals have a 13-point lead over the Tories among those aged 30 to 44. The Liberals also do well among those who have some university education, leading the Tories by 10-points (Liberals 39%, Conservative 29%, NDP 23%).

Liberals gain from both Conservative and NDP 2011 voters

The Liberals are doing well at holding their 2011 supporters and drawing from those who voted NDP and Conservative in 2011. Among those who voted Tory in 2011, 13% intend to vote Liberal. Among those who voted NDP, 23% intend to support the Liberals. In contrast, the Liberals have maintained 89% of their former vote, losing 5% of past supporters to the NDP and 3% to the Tories.

Second Choices

When committed voters are asked which party would be their second choice, the NDP and Liberals are tied with 25% selecting the NDP as their second choice and 23% selecting the Liberals. Thirteen percent selected the Tories as their second choice while 18% said they had no second choice.

Those who support the Conservative Party were most likely to say they had no second choice (35%) while another 30% of CPC supporters picked the Liberals as their second choice. 19% of Conservative Party supporters selected the NDP as their second choice.

Among Liberal supporters, the NDP was most likely to be selected as their second choice with 38% picking the NDP and 25% selecting the Tories. Nineteen percent of Liberal supporters said they did not have a second choice.

Among NDP supporters, 41% picked the Liberal Party as their second choice while 16% selected either the BQ or Green Party. Twelve percent of NDP supporters selected the Conservative Party as their second choice.

Impression of Federal Party Leaders

Respondents were also asked for their impression of the main party leaders. There has been little change in overall impressions since March 2014. Canadians are more likely to have a positive impression of Justin Trudeau (37%) than any other leader but Tom Mulcair continues to have the most positive net impression. However, a large number of Canadians (16%) still do know enough about Mr. Mulcair to have an opinion of him.

Stephen Harper remains a polarizing figure with 44% saying they have a negative impression of him while 29% have a positive impression leading to a net impression of -15.

Harper Government Approval Rating

Just over one in three Canadians (35%) approve of the job the Harper Government is doing while 43% say they disapprove. Another 22% of Canadians surveyed say they neither approve nor disapprove. This is largely unchanged since March 2014 when 33% of Canadians said they approved of the Harper Government.

Approval of the government is highest in Alberta (50%) and lowest in Quebec (24%). The Harper Government receives higher marks from men (39%) than from women (32%).

Of note, 71% of those who voted Conservative in 2011 approve of the Harper Government’s job performance, while 16% disapprove. Among those who disapprove and voted CPC in 2011, 27% would vote Liberal, 27% would vote NDP, while 25% would vote Conservative. Another 17% say they are currently undecided.

Commentary from Abacus CEO David Coletto

As the summer begins, little has changed in public opinion or federal vote intentions. The Liberals continue to lead the Conservatives, which they have done in our tracking since January 2014. This lead is based on the party’s ability to attract a large proportion of former NDP and Conservative Party supporters. The Liberals are now first or second in every region of the country. They are tied for second in British Columbia, are second in Alberta, and are tied for first with the Tories in Ontario. Moreover, east of the Ottawa River, they had a clear lead in Quebec and in Atlantic Canada.

For the Tories, the government’s approval has remained steady at around 33% to 35% for the last year. The party is strong in the Prairies and competitive in Ontario. Tory support, however, has slipped in BC since 2011 (down 14-points) and Quebec and Atlantic Canada are going to be difficult regions for the party to hold seats or make gains.

For the NDP, the party continues to poll higher than its historic position thanks largely to its support in Quebec. However, it has lost some ground in BC and trails the Liberals and Conservatives in Ontario. Although Tom Mulcair has the highest net positive rating of the three main party leaders, a large number of Canadians still don’t know enough about to form an opinion in regions outside of Quebec. His challenge remains to introduce himself to many voters outside of Quebec.

Methodology

The survey was conducted online with 2,000 respondents by Abacus Data. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.Since the expert’s intervention is here, it shows the superiority of the survey! Likewise, you should also search for the expert suggestions in whichever new things you plan to venture, especially in the case of new financial ventures like the cryptocurrency investment practice! For the unparalleled expert guidance on the same, check here!

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806 or Bruce Anderson at banderson@abacusdata.ca

Liberals lead Tories by 3 as NDP gains.

As we head into the final week of the 2014 Ontario election campaign, the race is too close to call. Since last week, support for the Liberals is down three points while NDP support is up four. The Liberals continue to do well in Toronto and in the communities surrounding Toronto but their support has slipped in other parts of the province.

The uncertainty of the election is related to the fact that there is no dominant ballot question. When we asked respondents what the Ontario election has been about, no answer was selected by more than one in five eligible voters. If that shifts between now and June 12, we could be in for a surprise.

If the election is about electing a government they can trust, the Tories and NDP will do well. If it is about dealing with the economic troubles facing the province, the Tories will win. But if the election is about stopping Tim Hudak and protecting social programs, the Liberals will win. If it is about all these factors, we are likely in for a minority legislature, similar to that produced by the 2011 election.Ballot1

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Liberals

The past week has been tough for the Liberals. Their support is down three points, Kathleen Wynne’s personal numbers have worsened, and more people would be dismayed if the Liberals formed government after June 12. However, Wynne still leads as best premier over Hudak and Horwath.

BestPremier

PCs

Hudak’s positive debate performance did little to improve PC support. In fact, Hudak’s personal numbers have actually worsened since before the debate. For the first time in our tracking, a majority of eligible voters have a negative impression of the PC leader. However, Tory supporters are the most committed and they are more likely to vote. If the rise in NDP supports holds out until election day, that could benefit the Tories in some close ridings around the GTA.

NDP

Although Horwath’s debate performance was neither great nor poor, NDP support has risen largely as a result of increasing unease with either the Liberals or the Tories. They lead in the North, are competitive in southwestern Ontario, and have strong support in electoral districts they currently hold.

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Key Findings

The race has tightened among eligible voters with the Liberals now leading the Tories by 3 points. NDP support is up four points since last week, the highest we have tracked since the start of the campaign – OLP 34%, PC 31%, NDP 28%.
Among likely voters, the Liberals and PCs are tied with the NDP eight points back in third – OLP 34%, PC 34%, NDP 26%.
Liberals lead in Toronto, among those aged 30 to 44, among public sector employees, and are tied with the NDP among women.
Tories lead in the SW, among those aged 45 to 59, among private sector employees, and among men. They are now tied with the Liberals among those aged 60 and over.
The NDP leads in the North.
54% of eligible voters believe it is time for another party to take over, up 6 since last week. 24% believe the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, unchanged since last week.
21% of respondents said the election was about electing a government they could trust while another 20% said it was about how to deal with the economic problems facing the province. 15% percent said it was about electing a party that would do the best job on health, education, and other public services.
32% of eligible voters think the Liberals will win while 25% think the PCs will win. Four in ten (39%) are unsure who will win the provincial election.
The percentage of eligible voters with negative impressions of Kathleen Wynne and Tim Hudak increased since the previous wave of research. For Kathleen Wynne, her net favourable score decreased by five points (from -8 to -13) while Hudak’s decreased score by seven points (from -23 to -30). In contrast, Andrea Horwath’s net favourable score increased by two points (from +5 to +7).
Kathleen Wynne still leads as “best Premier”: Wynne 27%, Hudak 21%, Horwath 20%, 31% unsure.
Our most recent survey has also found a slight decline in enthusiasm for a Liberal government and a rise in the number of people who would be dismayed if the Liberals formed a government after June 12. In our last wave of research, 36% said they would be dismayed with a Liberal government. In this wave, 41% said they would be dismayed.
A weakening of the Liberal situation has not improved things for the Tories however. Perceptions about a PC government were largely unchanged with 46% saying they would be dismayed with a PC government and 18% saying they would be delighted.
Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 1,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from June 4 to 7, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 875 committed voters of the same is +/- 3.4 %, 19 times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Too Close to Call: Liberals and Tories Tied at 36% Among Likely Voters; NDP at 23% Too Close to Call: Liberals and Tories Tied at 36% Among Likely Voters; NDP at 23%

As voters head to the polls on Thursday, the election is too close to call. While the Liberals lead by three points among eligible voters, the Tories and Liberals are tied among likely voters, with 36% each. The NDP’s gains in our last survey have been sustained although they continue to do well among eligible voters with 26% support. However, among likely voters, NDP support has dropped to 23%.

The big wildcard in the election is turnout and the motivation of voters as they decide whether to vote at all. We know that PC voters are more motivated which could make the difference in breaking the tie we report from the survey.

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We are not in a position to call this election for either party. It is clear that either the Liberals or the PCs will win the most votes, and either could also win the most seats. However, we are not making any seat projections.

Despite a long and often negative campaign, our numbers have been consistent throughout the campaign. The Liberals have been ahead among eligible voters since our second week of tracking with the Tories around the low thirties and the NDP around the mid-twenties. While the leaders’ debates stalled Liberal momentum, its effect was not substantial enough to prevent the Liberals from winning.

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Kathleen Wynne has also consistently led as best premier, demonstrating the dilemma many voters are facing as they head out to vote on Thursday. Many like Wynne personally but also think its time for a change. That’s the conflict percolating within many swing voters’ thinking.

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For Tim Hudak, the opposite is true. A majority of voters have a negative impression of him, and even among PC supporters, positive impressions are tepid at best. But for voters seeking change, he is their best hope. If he wins on Thursday it is because the PC base was motivated and turned out en masse in an otherwise low turnout election.

Finally, for Andrea Horwath, the expectations she and the NDP had at the start of the campaign will likely not be met. Our polling suggests they should do as well as last time in terms of votes, but that might not be enough for many of her critics, especially if the Tories form government.

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Key Findings

The Liberals have a 3-point lead over the PCs among committed eligible voters. There has been little movement in the overall numbers since last week.
Among likely voters, the Liberals and PCs are at 36% each with the NDP in third at 23%.
Liberals lead in Toronto, among those aged 30 to 44, among public sector employees, and among women.
Tories lead in Eastern Ontario and among those aged 60.
The NDP leads in the North and is tied with the PCs in Southwestern Ontario.
Kathleen Wynne has a 5-point lead over Tim Hudak on who would make the best Premier. Among likely voters Wynne leads by only 2 (Wynne 30%, Hudak 28%, Horwath 19%).
55% of eligible voters believe it is time for another party to take over, up 1 since last week. 23% believe the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, unchanged since last week.
20% of respondents said the election was about electing a government they could trust while another 20% said it was about how to deal with the economic problems facing the province.

While I do not discourage the ideas of these 20% participants, sometimes, the economic challenges that we face are due to our ignorance and not always because of the country’s economic situation or the elected representative’s lack of proper measures. Yes, so how many of you are aware of the profitable ways offered by the Bitcoin Loophole to favor your economy? If you say no, unfortunately, you are one of those ignorant people!

15% percent said it was about electing a party that would do the best job on health, education, and other public services while 16% said it was about preventing Tim Hudak from winning the election.
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Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 1,882 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from June 9 to 11, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,653 committed voters of the same is +/- 2.5 %, 19 times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Liberals lead Tories by 7; Closer race among likely voters

With just under two weeks to go in the campaign, the Liberals continue to maintain a small advantage over the PCs.  Among eligible voters, the Liberals have opened up a seven-point lead, but among those most likely to vote, the Liberals and Tories are statistically tied with the Liberals at 37% and the Tories at 35%.  The NDP has failed to gain any momentum, despite Andrea Horwath’s more aggressive strategy last week.Well, the aggressiveness of the strategy doesn’t matter because what matters really is whether the strategy is futuristic to lead the country successfully into the future! This is how you ought to choose any solution be it the financial solution or the personal solution! If you are more eager about the former then, check this futuristic Tesler App solution!

While the debate could shake up the race, deeper analysis of the poll results suggests that the Tories have little room to grow beyond its current support and there is little enthusiasm for the NDP among the key swing groups that would consider voting NDP.

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likelyvoters

Consider these findings: among those who would consider voting Liberal or NDP but not PC, the Liberals lead the NDP by 20-points.  More importantly, when asked how they would react to a Liberal, PC, and NDP government, these voters were more likely to be “delighted” with a Liberal win, few were delighted if the NDP won, and almost all would be dismayed if Tim Hudak was able to form a PC government.  The state of mind among these voters bodes well for the Liberals as they seek to squeeze the NDP by raising fears about a Hudak government.

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The upside for the Tories is that their supporters appear to be more motivated and more likely to vote, hence the small gap between them and the Liberals among likely voters.  However,  it is clear that the first three weeks of the campaign have been won by the government, not the challenging parties. The PC campaign needs to reverse this direction in order to win – the debate carries extraordinary stakes for Mr. Hudak now.

Interest in the campaign remains remarkably low at this stage, with only 22% of eligible voters saying they are following the campaign closely and only 36% saying they have given quite a bit of thought to the campaign.

The leaders’ debate could increase interest but all signs at this stage point to another low turnout election in Ontario and a legislature that looks very similar to one at dissolution.

Key Findings

  • The Liberals have opened up a 7-point lead over the PCs with 37% for the OLP, 30% for the PCs and 24% for the NDP.
  • Among likely voters, Liberals lead by 2 over Tories (OLP 37%, PC 35%, NDP 22%).
  • Liberals continue to lead among key swing groups – including those who would consider voting Liberal or NDP and those who would consider voting PC or Liberal.
  • 32% of eligible voters think the Liberals will win while 22% think the PCs will win.  Four in ten (39%) are unsure who will win the provincial election.
  • We also asked respondents to tell us how they would feel if each of the main parties formed a government.
  • Eligible voters were more likely to be “dismayed” if Mr. Hudak and the PCs formed a government (44%) while 36% would be dismayed if the Ontario Liberals formed a government.  Respondents were less likely to be dismayed at the prospect of an NDP government led by Ms. Horwath (31%) and were more likely to say  they wouldn’t mind an NDP government.
  • Interest in the campaign has not changed since the previous week of polling.

Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 1,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from May 28 to 31, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.  The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 875 committed voters of the same is +/- 3.4 %, 19 times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Ontario Liberals lead Tories by Two

As the Ontario election campaign enters its second half, no party has a clear lead in vote intention.  The Liberals have a small lead among all eligible voters and among those most likely to vote, they have leaped ahead of the PCs and now lead by three points. The NDP remains competitive but still well back in third place.

The Liberals continue to do well in Toronto but the race is very tight in the vote and seat rich region around Toronto.  The Liberals and Tories are deadlock at 33% in the GTA region with the NDP not far back at 25%.

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Despite the fact that the advertising ban was lifted on Wednesday May 21, interest in the campaign has not increased since the previous week of polling. Moreover, 60% of eligible voters still report not being contacted by any party or campaign.

At this stage of the campaign, survey data indicates that the Liberal and PC campaigns have been most active province-wide however respondents living in NDP held ridings were more likely to report being contacted by the NDP; a sign that the NDP is concentrating on the ridings it currently holds as well as a handful of ridings it thinks it can win.

Despite the Liberal lead, only 24% of eligible voters believe the Liberals and Kathleen Wynne deserve to be re-elected.  51% think it is time for another party to take over while 25% say they are unsure.  This group of “unsure about change” voters is the key to understanding how the election campaign may ultimately turn out.

Right now, the Liberals lead among these “unsure about change” voters (OLP 26%, NDP 16%, PC 12%) but 39% are still undecided about how they will vote.

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While many will likely not turn out to vote, the Liberal lead is built around these voters not shifting their opinion on “time for a change.”  If a large portion of these voters shift their preferences or do not turn out to vote due to a lack of motivation, it will be very difficult for the Liberals to win.

None of the challenging parties seem to be gathering momentum so far in the campaign.  If the mood for change is going to grow and firm up, neither Hudak or Horwath are making that happen so far.  This may change if more voters start paying more attention to the election.  Wynne may not being moving forward but she is at the very least holding her own, against a mood for change.

These voters are the most important target for the NDP as it seeks to expand beyond the 25% support it has because these voters are not intense in their desire for change but are not convinced the Liberals deserve another term in office.

Key Findings

  • There has been little movement in vote intention in the past week.
  • Liberals have a small two-point lead among committed eligible voters (OLP 34%, PC 32%, NDP 25%). 15% of eligible voters are undecided.
  • Liberals lead among likely voters (OLP 36%, PC 33%, NDP 24%).
  • 51% of eligible voters think it is time for another party to take over.  24% believe the Liberals deserve to be re-elected.  25% are unsure.
  • Among those unsure about whether it is time for a change, the Liberals lead by 10-points over the NDP.
  • Liberals lead in Toronto and Eastern Ontario (area codes starting with K). PCs ahead in southwestern Ontario. OLP and PCs tied in Greater Toronto Area (postal code starts with L)
  • NDP tied with Liberals in the North.
  • Tories lead among those aged 60 and over, men, and those living in rural communities.
  • 60% of eligible voters report not being contacted by a party or a campaign.  24% report being contacted by Liberals, 22% by the PCs, and 14% by the NDP.
  • Interest in the campaign has not change since the previous week of polling.

vote3_2vote2_2

Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 1,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from May 21 to 24, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.  The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 864 committed voters of the same is +/- 3.4 %, 19 times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Ontario Election Roundup: Unpredictability is the Word

The opening round of this Ontario election battle has been well worth watching. Anyone who says they know how this election will turn out is truly only guessing, as I see it, because many voters have not yet turned their attention to the choices on offer.

If it’s too early to tell how things will end up, it’s not too early to talk about what’s happened so far and how some of the positions taken and campaign messages might influence voters. Here are a few things that have struck me so far.

In our polling, it’s clear that many voters think the economy is under performing. While this is usually a pretty good indicator of a desire for change, it’s critical to understand the psychology of how voters think about politicians and the economy. It’s far from a binary situation – there’s more nuance than one might think.

When the economy is terrible, voters think almost anything would be better, and this is usually when change happens electorally. However, when people think the economy is weak (but not terrible) we can often see different, more tentative instincts. Voters want the economy to get better, but for those who are employed and able to pay their bills, there’s also some fear that it could get worse, with the wrong measures.While it is certainly important to choose the right leader who could stabilize the economic situation of the country, you can also do your own share by choosing the effective measures like the Ethereum Code, an automated cryptocurrency investment platform to boost your own economy! This measure has also been favored by many real users, which means your success is assured! So, more about the elections!

This is the context in which Tim Hudak’s Million Jobs Plan has landed. The challenge he’s facing is that his formula may sound great to the most conservative voters, but a leap of faith for others. To some ears, it may sound like harsh medicine, the kind of thing that feels like it could produce hard times rather than good times.

Anyone who says they know how this election will turn out is truly only guessing, as I see it, because many voters have not yet turned their attention to the choices on offer.
Anyone who says they know how this election will turn out is truly only guessing, as I see it, because many voters have not yet turned their attention to the choices on offer.

Uncertain voters may want to believe in the Million Jobs upside, but they don’t know if that’s more than a slogan, and haven’t yet developed a sense of confidence in Mr. Hudak’s economic judgment. Moreover, while they don’t know they can truly count on the million new jobs, they are sure they can count on the 100,000 job cuts he’s promising.

For some voters, Mr. Hudak’s plan is an encouraging signal of more fiscal discipline and a promise of better times to come. For others, it sounds like mass layoffs, longer hospital wait times, bigger class sizes and fewer consumers with money to spend. Polling so far suggests that if this election was tomorrow and it turned on his economic plan, he just might fall short of a victory once again – so his work is cut out for him.

Kathleen Wynne main effort so far is about ensuring this election is about anything but Dalton McGuinty and his last years in office. Liberal ads profile Wynne, far more than the party, and this has paid off somewhat. A remarkable number of voters already see her as an improvement over her predecessor (40%), despite the fact that the economy has not noticeably improved in the year or so that she has been Premier. If she is allowed to not run on the Liberal record she will jump at the chance. To date, her opponents have mostly given her that gift.

For the NDP, there seem to be big challenges to overcome. First, there are plenty of progressive voters in Ontario, but only about 1 in 5 who might consider themselves left wing. The party, not unlike the Conservatives, has to motivate a leftist base and at the same time reassure those in the middle of the spectrum that an NDP change would not be too radical. Doing this requires great communications skills and a handful of marquis policies that show how to bridge these perspectives. So far, there’s little evidence that the NDP has been getting this job done.

Bottom line? There’s plenty of time left for opinion to form, and even re-form. Leaders have had a chance to work out kinks in their campaigns and road test their messages. This is the period of time when the campaign teams need to be able to be clear eyed about how they are doing and concentrate on what they might need to do differently, to be more effective. The race ahead looks interesting, to say the least.

Bruce Anderson is the chairman of polling firm Abacus Data and a founding partner of i2 Ideas and Issues Advertising.

Download all our releases from the week

1. Ontario Liberals and PCs tied at 33%

2. Wynne ahead as best Premier

3. Top Election Issues: Jobs and the Economy