Election Analysis: What I’m looking for this weekend

Tonight’s new poll results show a slight tightening of the race.  The Liberals are down 2-points while the Tories are up three.

Stephen McNeil is still the most popular leader but Jamie Baillie isn’t too far behind.

The question is: Can the Liberals lose this?

I still think there’s a remote possibility.

Our latest numbers show their advantage on the top issues disappearing and there’s movement away from the Liberals.  The CRA poll is showing the same thing.

But what’s interesting is that the NDP isn’t benefiting from it.  Instead, we’re seeing improvements for the Tories on the ballot question and Baillie’s personal numbers are up slightly.

Is the NDP attacks on McNeil shifting voters to the PCs – thereby putting in play the possibility of a minority government?

That’s the question our tracking over the weekend will try to answer – especially as voters start to pay a little more attention to things in the campaign.

One interesting finding that we haven’t spent too much time on thus far:

Only 23% of respondents have been following the election very closely.  Another 49% are following it somewhat closely. 

As a researcher, I’m interested to see what happens when families and friends get together this weekend and talk about the election.  I’d love to be sitting in on some of those family dinners this Sunday to hear if there’s talk about the election and what people are saying.  Never discount the power of a few influencers to move voters who have fairly soft opinions about the three parties and leaders.

If the collective conclusion is that Stephen McNeil is a safe choice – then the Liberals will lock this down.

If the doubts that the NDP have planted sprout… watch out.  It could swing in the last few days and make it a much closer race.

We will be back in the field this weekend with new numbers released on Sunday and Monday.

Don’t miss any of the new data – check in at www.novascotiapolls.ca

 

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David Coletto is CEO of Abacus Data and leads its Public Affairs research practice. He has a PhD from the University of Calgary and is an adjunct professor at Carleton University.  He’s an avid road cyclist.

Contact David Coletto:

T: 613-232-2806 x. 248

E: david@abacusdata.ca

W: http://www.abacusdata.ca

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