50% of Voters Aren’t Satisfied with Any of the Choices

One of the more interesting things in this election has been the low level of interest in the campaign itself.  We have been tracking how much voters have been following news of the election and how much thought they have given to it.  Interest has barely increased since the start of the campaign and less than a majority of eligible voters have thought a lot about the election.

There is also this story about the None of the Above Party and efforts to encourage voters to decline a ballot when they go to vote

You may have even felt the same lack of enthusiasm if you have spoken with people about the election.  They say they aren’t happy with the choices and no one gets them excited.

We asked survey respondents of our  recent survey about the choices in the election.

Specifically we asked whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statement:

“I am not really satisfied with any of the choices in this election”

A bare majority (50%) of eligible voters agreed with the statement while 37% disagreed.  Another 13% said they were unsure.

When we look at how people are voting based on their response to the statement, it is clear that PC supporters are more motivated.  47% of those who strongly disagree that they are not satisfied with any of the choices in the election said they are going to vote PC.  Another 34% are voting Liberal and only 16% are voting NDP.

Among the large group of dissatisfied voters, the results are much closer.  This suggests that we could see a big swing in vote intentions in the last few days of the campaign.  It also indicates that turnout is really going to matter.  If Liberal and NDP voters say home, the Tories may have a good election day.

choices

 

Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 1,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from June 4 to 7, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.  The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 875 committed voters of the same is +/- 3.4 %, 19 times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.