Election Polling Brief: Vote Intention by Self-Identified Class

There’s been a lot of discussion and focus on the middle class in federal politics.  The middle class voter is all the rave these days.

But we haven’t heard too much about middle class voters during the Ontario election.  So I wondered, who is winning the hearts and minds of middle class voters in Ontario?

The answer seems to be the Ontario Liberals.

In our survey, we ask respondents to place themselves into one of six social groups: working class, lower middle class, middle class, upper middle class, and upper class.  The largest group in our sample are from the middle class (about 40%).  The chart below breaks down committed voters by class.

classvoting

 

Among middle class eligible voters, the OLP has a 10-point lead over the Tories with the NDP well back at 18%.  The NDP does best among those who self-identify as lower middle class (39%) while the Tories do best among those self-identifying as upper middle class (41%) while its a close three-way race among those self-identifying as working class.

Methodology

The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 1,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from May 28 to 31, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.  The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 875 committed voters of the same is +/- 3.4 %, 19 times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.