Abacus Data Surveys and the Election Results

The election is over and that means that the media and the public can assess how well the pollsters did in predicting the election results.

Overall, I think the industry did quite well.

Most polls released during the last weekend of the campaign accurately captured the voting trends.  While most underestimated the strength of the Conservative vote, almost all polls were within the margin of error.

Here at Abacus Data, this was our first big election in which we tracked voting intentions and offered our take on the election in the final days of the campaign.  We finished poll Friday night and the results were fairly close to our findings.

It was a crowded field – there were lots of polls and a few new firms releasing numbers.  We showed that online research is legitimate and accurate when done right.  Public opinion researchers in Canada know what they are doing and are constantly finding ways to ensure that our work is sound, accurate, and representative.

Elections provide us pollsters with a chance to test whether the methods and strategies we use to measure public opinion are good and produce reliable and accurate results.

So here’s how Abacus Data did: Our final results were within the comparable margin of error for a survey of 1,007 Canadians.