Canadian Politics: Liberals lead Conservatives by 6

pdf-icon-transparent-background2A new national survey (February 28 to March 5, 2014) shows the federal Liberal Party with a 6 point lead among committed voters, at 34% followed by the Conservatives at 28% and the NDP at 23%.  Among all eligible voters 26% said they would vote Liberal, 22% Conservative, 18% NDP and 22% are undecided.  Fieldwork was completed following the Liberal Party convention in Montreal, held between February 20-23, 2014.

 Slide1

Liberals lead in Ontario, BC, Atlantic; Tories in the Prairies; 3 way fight in Quebec.

While caution should be used in looking at regional patterns given smaller sample sizes this poll shows the Liberals leading in BC, Ontario and Quebec, the Conservatives in the Prairie provinces, and a close fight in Quebec.

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Liberals lead among both genders, and voters under 60.

The Liberals lead by 5 points among men and 6 points among women.  The Liberals are leading or tied for the lead among all age groups.

Liberals gain from both Conservative and NDP 2011 voters

The Liberals are doing well at holding their 2011 supporters and drawing from those who voted NDP and Conservative in 2011.  Among those who voted Tory in 2011, 17% plan to vote Liberal.  Among those who voted NDP, 21% now plan to support the Liberals.  In contrast, the Liberals have maintained 88% of their former vote, losing 6% of past supporters to the NDP, 4% to the BQ, and 2% to the Conservatives.

Slide3

Core and Swing Voters

As things now stand, each of the three largest parties can count on virtually identical proportions of unwavering supporters.  13% say they would only consider voting Conservative, 13% say they would only consider voting NDP and 12% say they would only consider voting Liberal.

Thirteen percent (13%) are willing to consider all three parties (Fully Flexible).

One in five (21%) say they would only consider the Liberals or NDP (Flexible Left).  More of this group are leaning Liberal (50%) than NDP (27%).  Thirteen percent say they would only consider the Conservatives or the Liberals. (Flexible Right). More of this group are leaning Conservative (42%) than Liberal (30%)

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Methodology

The survey was conducted online with 1,249 respondents in English and French by Abacus Data. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy is to limit statements about margins of sampling error with regard to most online panels.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

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Abacus Data is an innovative, fast growing research consultancy, providing public opinion and marketing research using the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to help generate top-flight research based advice to our clients.  We deliver global research capacities with a strong customer service orientation, fierce attention to detail and providing extraordinary value.

Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/