Coynemania: The Numbers Behind Andrew Coyne’s Favourability

Early this morning we released our latest Federal Political Update that found the NDP and Conservatives tied nationally at 35%.  We also asked respondents to rate their feelings towards a number of individuals who have been mentioned as potential federal Liberal leaders.

One of those individuals is National Post columnist and regular on the National’s At Issue panel, Andrew Coyne.  Earlier this month, a twitter debate started about whether Mr. Coyne would make a good leader and a small draft Coyne movement has started (check out #coyne4lpc on Twitter).  So much so that I have been asked a few times for more details on his numbers.

So here’s a little more detail on the nation’s take of Mr. Coyne:

Nationally, most Canadians told us they didn’t know enough about Mr. Coyne to say whether they had a favourable or unfavourable impression of him.  Sixty-four percent were not sure of their opinion while 15% said they had a favourable impression while 21% had an unfavourable impression.  Unfortunately for Mr. Coyne, the percentage of respondents who had “very unfavourable” was higher than those who had a “very favourable” impression of him (9% very unfavourable vs. 3% very favourable).

Nonetheless, there are “pockets” of Coynemania out there.

  • Men are slightly more likely to have a favourable impression of him than women (men 18% favourable, women 12% – women were also much more likely to be unsure).
  • There was no significant age difference although older Canadians (no surprisingly) were more likely to be aware of Mr. Coyne.
  • Regionally, he is more popular in Manitoba and Saskatchewan (25% favourable) than in other regions of the country.  He is a tough sell in Quebec where his favourable rating is a mere 8%.
  • Considering his occupation and the audience likely to read and watch him, it is no surprise that respondents with a university degree were most aware and favourable to Mr. Coyne.  24% of those with a bachelor’s degree and 29% of those with a post-graduate degree had a favourable impression of the National Post columnist.
  • He is also more likely to be viewed favourably by those who live in urban communities (urban 18% favourable, suburban 13% favourable, rural 12% favourable).
  • Mr. Coyne is also viewed more favourable by those who own stocks, bonds, or mutual funds: 20% favourable vs. 10% among those who don’t own those kinds of investments.
  • Finally, there isn’t a significant partisan difference.  Those who voted Liberal in 2011 are only slightly more likely to view him positively than NDP and CPC voters but the differences are marginal.  He is a post-partisan candidate!

So there you have it folks.  Andrew Coyne is no Justin Trudeau when it comes to popularity or awareness but those who like him tend to be male, live in the prairires (where the Liberals need some help), are educated, and are from the investor class.  Not a bad base to launch a political career.