PCs Hold Marginal Lead Over the Liberals in New Brunswick

One week before the election, the Progressive Conservative Party has a small lead over the Liberal Party that is within the margin of error for the survey.

42% of decided voters said they would vote for the PC Party, followed by 38% for the Liberals, 11% for the NDP, and 6% for the Greens.  The upstart People’s Alliance of New Brunswick received 2%.  17% of eligible voters said they were still undecided.

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NB Power Deal and the Election

A majority of NB voters (62%)  disagreed when asked if selling NB Power was the right thing to do for the province while only 28% either strongly or somewhat agreed.

Attitudes about the deal were correlated with vote choice.  Over three-quarters of voters who strongly agreed that the deal was good for the province said they would vote Liberal, while 56% of those who strongly disagreed said they would vote PC.

Survey data indicated that the NB Power deal was an important determinant of vote choice for about half of eligible voters.

Overall, 38% of respondents said the deal was important to their vote and believed it was not good for the province.  Another 11% said the deal was important to their vote but believed it was good for the province.

The PC Party is the main benificiary of engaged opponents of the deal.  More then 5 in 10 voters who opposed the deal and said it would impact their vote (55%) said they were voting PC.

The Liberals have a large lead among voters who said the deal was not important to their vote.

Most New Brunswick voters (65%) want the province to keep full control over NB Power.  Only 16% said it should try and sell the power utility again.

Those who preferred keeping full control of NB Power were more likely to vote PC than Liberal, while a large majority of those who want to try and sell NB Power again said they would vote Liberal.

Methodology

749 randomly selected eligible New Brunswick voters completed the survey by telephone conducted between September 17 and 19, 2010.  The margin of error for the survey is + 3.7%, 19 times out of 20.

David Coletto is CEO of Abacus Data and leads its Public Affairs research practice. He has a PhD from the University of Calgary and is an adjunct professor at Carleton University.

Contact David Coletto:

T: 613-232-2806 x. 248

E: david@abacusdata.ca

W: http://www.abacusdata.ca

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