Performance of Abacus Data/VOCM Poll in St. John’s Municipal Election

Earlier this month, Abacus Data and VOCM released a poll on vote intentions in the St. John’s Mayoral and Deputy Mayoral elections.

Yesterday was Election Day.  Dennis O’Keefe was re-elected as Mayor defeating Sheilagh O’Leary by 15-points while Ron Ellsworth was elected Deputy Mayor defeating Jennifer McCreath by 66-points.

Our polling for VOCM performed very well despite it being conducted at the end of August, a full month before Election Day indicating that in aggregate, opinions and intended voting behaviours changed little over the course of the campaign.

Our mayoral election poll was off by three points and within the margin of error.

Slide1

The deputy mayor election survey was less accurate but we should keep in mind that Jennifer McCreath had just entered the election around the time the survey was in the field.

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Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey commissioned by VOCM was conducted with 435 eligible voters living in the City of St. John’s

The survey was completed from August 28 to 31, 2013.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 435 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 4.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched St. John’s population.  The tables within this report detail the weighted and unweighted counts for the sample.

David Coletto is CEO of Abacus Data and leads its Public Affairs research practice. He has a PhD from the University of Calgary and is an adjunct professor at Carleton University.  He’s an avid road cyclist.

Contact David Coletto:

T: 613-232-2806 x. 248

E: david@abacusdata.ca

W: http://www.abacusdata.ca

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