Research Note: Did Undecided Voters Give the Liberals Their Majority?

For many, the Ontario majority Liberal win on June 12 was a surprise.  Our own polling showed the Liberals ahead among eligible voters for most of the campaign, but tied with the PCs among likely voters in our final release.  As Eric Grenier at threehundredeight.com has shown, the eligible...

Federal Politics: Liberals lead Tories by 3

A new national survey (June 25 to July 3, 2014) shows the federal Liberal Party with a 3-point lead among committed voters, at 34% followed by the Conservatives at 31% and the NDP at 23%.  Among all eligible voters 28% said they would vote Liberal, 25% Conservative, 19% NDP and 19% are...

Hill Times: Ontario polls show how it should be done

The polls were not exactly the miss they have been made out to be. What’s more, some polls provided good examples of how to do it right. By ÉRIC GRENIER Published: Monday, 06/30/2014 12:00 am EDT The Hill Times...

Canada’s Best and Worst Provinces: 2014 edition

Alberta still reigns: viewed as best managed, lowest income taxes, and best place to open a new business Today Abacus celebrates our 3rd annual Best and Worst Provinces Survey release. Just as we did in 2013 and 2012, Abacus has measured Canadian perceptions  on a number of metrics. As we...

Battleground Ontario: Watch for regional swings tonight.

Today’s election is too close to call.  Our last poll had the Tories and Liberals tied at 36% among likely voters.  The seat projectors predict that unless the Tories can win much more of the popular vote, the Liberals should win a minority.  Why?  Because of how regionalized the...

Too Close to Call: Liberals and Tories Tied at 36% Among Likely Voters; NDP at 23%

As voters head to the polls on Thursday, the election is too close to call.  While the Liberals lead by three points among eligible voters, the Tories and Liberals are tied among likely voters, with 36% each.  The NDP’s gains in our last survey have been sustained although they continue to do...

Nearly 60% of Pickering/Ajax Residents Opposed to a New or Expanded Casino Built within 5km of Their Home

A new random telephone survey of 500 residents of Pickering and Ajax finds the percentage of respondents strongly opposed to a casino in Pickering is far greater than the number who strongly support a casino (32% strongly oppose vs. 14% strongly support). Overall,  one in two residents (50%)...

50% of Voters Aren’t Satisfied with Any of the Choices

One of the more interesting things in this election has been the low level of interest in the campaign itself.  We have been tracking how much voters have been following news of the election and how much thought they have given to it.  Interest has barely increased since the start of the...

Liberals lead Tories by 3 as NDP gains.

As we head into the final week of the 2014 Ontario election campaign, the race is too close to call.  Since last week, support for the Liberals is down three points while NDP support is up four.  The Liberals continue to do well in Toronto and in the communities surrounding Toronto but their...

Hudak dominates Google Trends since May

The chart below tracks interest in the three main party leaders according to Google Trends. Since the budget was announced in early May, Hudak has generated more interest than the other two leaders. There is a noticeable spike from June 2 to 4 in the lead up and aftermath of the...

Perceptions of the Economy Improve but Jobs and Economy still Top Issue

The economy and jobs continues to be the central issue of concern for the most voters in the Ontario election. Despite the importance of the economy on the election, the Tories or NDP have not benefited much.  While its Million Jobs Plan as set the agenda for the campaign, Tory support has...

In debate format, Wynne can’t run on, or hide from McGuinty’s record

Tim Hudak’s campaign, until last night, was a hot mess.  An accident-prone tour, an ad campaign that wandered from topic to topic and an economic plan that would fail grade 9 math.  The stakes were high for Mr. Hudak going into last night’s debate and the expectations were low.  Many voters...

Million Dollar Jobs Plan Driving Campaign Agenda; Wynne still leads as Best Premier

Yesterday, we reported that the Liberals hold a seven-point lead over the Tories but that the race is closer among likely voters.  While a majority of eligible voters in Ontario want change and only 27% think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, a large portion are not yet ready to pass...

Election Polling Brief: Vote Intention by Self-Identified Class

There’s been a lot of discussion and focus on the middle class in federal politics.  The middle class voter is all the rave these days. But we haven’t heard too much about middle class voters during the Ontario election.  So I wondered, who is winning the hearts and minds of...