Ontario Liberals and PCs tied at 33%

pdf-icon-transparent-background2Abacus Data and the Sun News Network are tracking every twist and turn during the 2014 Ontario provincial election.  Each week, starting May 14, Abacus Data will conduct a representative survey of eligible voters in Ontario.  Results will be released the following week on The Battleground with David Akin at 5 pm ET and in Sun Media papers across Ontario.

Liberals and PCs tied at 33% among eligible voters.  PCs have a three point lead among likely voters. OntarioElection_Ballot As the campaign entered the second official week of the campaign, the Ontario Liberals and Progressive Conservatives were tied with 33% support respectively.  The NDP was in third with 26% support.

Among those most likely to vote however, the Tories lead by three. Regionally, with the Liberals ahead in metro Toronto and weak in southwestern Ontario, who wins the most seats will likely be determined by voters in the communities surrounding Toronto.  Right now, the Tories have a slight advantage but there are still many voters who would only consider the Liberals or Tories who are still undecided in the vote and seat rich region of the province.

The Liberals are competitive because they have been able to maintain support among progressive voters who are considering both the Liberals or NDP and among more conservative or free enterprise voters who are considering voting either Liberal or PC.

For the Tories to pull well ahead, they have to convince far more of those who would consider PC or Liberal to support the Tories while hoping that the NDP can siphon away more swing progressives from the left.

The Liberals have a few paths to victory but the most likely is one that persuades OLP/NDP swing voters to back the Liberals to prevent a Hudak win.

For the NDP, they need to remind progressives of the mistakes of Liberal past while doing all they can to downplay the threat that Tim Hudak plays to the same voters.  If the NDP is not seen as the alternative to the Tories, strategic voting may prevent the NDP from growing beyond its 2011 support levels.

OntarioElection_Ballot2

Main Findings

  • Liberals and PCs tied among committed eligible voters (OLP 33%, PC 33%, NDP 26%)..
  • PCs have a small lead over the OLP among committed likely voters (PC 36%, OLP 33%, NDP 25%).
  • 14% of eligible voters are undecided.
  • Liberals lead in Toronto and Eastern Ontario (area codes starting with K).
  • PCs ahead in southwestern Ontario and slightly ahead in region surrounding Toronto (area codes starting with L).
  • NDP ahead in the North (postal codes starting with P).
  • Tories lead among those aged 60 and over, men, and those living in rural communities.
  • Liberals lead among 30 to 44 year olds and women.
  • NDP does best among those aged 18 to 29.
  • Voters more likely to have been contacted by OLP or PC campaigns than NDP campaign.
  • 71% of eligible voters have not been contacted by a campaign yet.

Methodology The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 2,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples. The survey was conducted from May 14 to 16, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.  The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,672 committed voters of the same is +/- 2.4 %, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.