Federal Liberals lead by 27 in Newfoundland and Labrador

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According to a new VOCM-Abacus Data random telephone survey of 600 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador conducted from July 28 to August 1, the federal Liberal Party holds a large, 27-point lead over the federal Conservative Party.

The federal Liberals have 54% support among committed voters compared with 27% for the Tories and 15% for the NDP.   The Green Party has 1% support while 4% said they would vote for another party.

Among all respondents, 14% said they were undecided.

Compared to the 2011 Federal Election results, the Liberals are up 16-points while the NDP are down 18-points.  Conservative support is fairly consistent, down one from the 2011 election.

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Demographically, the Liberals lead among men and women (men 62%, women 45%), and among all age groups.  Among those aged 60 and over, the Liberals have a very large 38-point lead over the federal Tories.  The Liberals have 59% support among committed voters aged 60 and over compared to 21% for the Conservatives and 13% for the NDP.

Regionally, the picture is similar.  The federal Liberals have a substantial lead in every region of the province.  On the Avalon Peninsula and in St. John’s the Liberals lead by 30-points with 54% of committed voter support.  The Tories are at 24% while the NDP, which holds two seats in St. John’s, has 18% of the vote.

When we compare provincial and federal voting intentions there is a fairly strong correlation between the two.  89% of those who said they would vote for the NL Liberals would also support the federal Liberals.  Similarly, 76% of provincial NDP supporters would support their federal cousins.  Among NL PC voters however, the correlation is a little weaker.  While 70% of NL PC voters would support the federal Conservatives, 17% said they would vote for Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberals.

Analysis from Abacus Data

Our polling indicates that not only is Newfoundland and Labrador trending Liberal provincially, but it is federally as well.  The federal Liberals are now well ahead of either the federal Conservatives or NDP leading by almost thirty percentage points.  That lead extends across all demographic groups and regions of the province and is a significant improvement over the party’s vote share in the 2011 Federal Election.

The last time the Liberals had a majority of the support in NL in a federal election was in 1993 when the party won an astonishing 67% of the vote.  In 2011, the Liberals received 38% of the vote, down from the 47% it received in 2008.  In 2006, when the Tories defeated the Liberals, 43% voted Liberal compared with 43% who voted Conservative.

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey commissioned by VOCM was conducted with 600 eligible voters living in Newfoundland and Labrador.  The survey was completed from July 28 to August 1, 2014.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 500 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of Newfoundland and Labrador.  The tables within this report detail the weighted and unweighted counts for the sample.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA:

Abacus Data is an innovative, fast growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research based advice to our clients.  We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/